摘 要
2012年，十八大首次将“开展全民阅读活动”纳入我国社会主义文化强国建设。阅读已经开始受到全国上下各阶层人民的关注，尤其是少年儿童是国家的希望，社会的未来，中国还拥有着数量庞大的少年儿童，因此少儿图书尤其受到重视。
在这样的背景下，本文选取了“我国少儿图书市场消费需求影响因素”为题目，目的是通过阐述我国少儿图书的现状，实证分析影响我国少儿图书市场的消费需求影响因素，为少儿图书市场的健康发展提出自己的意见。
本文第一部分首先对选题意义及背景、研究方法以及研究内容进行了介绍；第二部分对相关理论进行了整理，包括微观经济学中影响消费需求的因素以及文献综述；第三部分是对少儿图书市场消费状况的分析，包括少儿图书的销量、价格、供给、消费者以及宏观环境的分析；第四部分是对影响少儿图书市场消费需求影响因素的分析，包括对少儿图书价格、消费者收入、替代品和消费者对于价格的预期以及包括人口和教育两大政策的政策因素的分析；第五部分选取图书销量、少儿图书价格和消费者收入作为变量，建立模型进行了实证分析；第六部分分析了模型，给出了结论，并提出了建议与本文的不足。
通过以上的分析，本文得出的结论为价格不是影响少儿图书市场消费需求的主要因素，家长及少年儿童在选取图书时最看重的是图书的内容；随着收入的增加，少儿图书的销量也不一定是增加的，这主要和少年儿童的阅读兴趣有关系；在政策方面，人口政策并不一定影响少儿图书市场的消费需求，教育政策则一定会影响，所以要想少儿图书市场取得长远健康的发展，还是需要国家、出版商以及家长注重教育政策、注意图书内容以及提高我国少年儿童对于读书的兴趣。
关键词：少儿图书；影响因素；消费需求
Abstract
In 2012, the eighteenth People’s Congress for the fi rst time to carry out the reading activities into the power of socialist culture construction in our country. Reading has been attracting the attention of the whole country of all levels’ people, especially the children is the hope of country and society in the future, China also has a large number of young children, so children’s books are particularly valued.
In this context, this article selects the infl uencing factors of children’s book market consumer demand in China for the subject, the purpose is through the present situation of our children’s books, the empirical analysis infl uence consumer demand factors affecting children’s book market in our country, for the healthy development of children’s book market put forward their own opinions.
The fi rst part of this article, fi rst of all, the selected topic signifi cance and the background, research methods and research content are introduced; The second part on the related theory, including the factors that affect consumer demand in microeconomics and literature review; The third part is the analysis of children’s book market consumption, including the children’s book sales, price, supply, consumers and the analysis of the macro environment; The fourth part is about the analysis of the affecting factors affect children’s book market consumption demand, including price, consumer income, substitutes for children’s books and consumers for price expectations, and include population and education policies of factors analysis; The fi fth part selected book sales price and consumer income, children’s books as a variable, make an empirical analysis of the model. The sixth is divided into advice and the shortage of this article.
Through the above analysis, we concluded that affect children’s book market price is not a major factor in consumer demand, parents and children select books for children in the most important is the content of the book; as incomes increase, sales of children’s books also not necessarily increase, mainly children’s interest in reading and have a relationship; policy aspects of population policy and the impact of consumer demandcertain market children’s books, educational policy is certainly affected. So in order to achieve long-term children’s book market is still healthy development needs of the country, focusing on education policy publishers and parents, pay attention to the book content and improve our children’s interest in reading.
Key words: Children; Affecting factors; Consumer demand
目 录
CONTENTS
第一章 绪言 ..............................................................................................533
1.1 选题背景及选题意义 ..........................................................................................533
1.2 研究方法 ....................................................................................................................534
1.3 研究内容 ....................................................................................................................535
第二章 相关理论 .......................................................................................536
2.1 微观经济学中影响消费需求的因素 .............................................................536
2.2 基本概念 ....................................................................................................................537
2.3 文献综述 ....................................................................................................................538
第三章 少儿图书市场消费状况分析 .............................................................541(www.xing528.com)
3.1 少儿图书销量分析 ................................................................................................541
3.2 少儿图书价格 ..........................................................................................................542
3.3 少儿图书供给 ..........................................................................................................545
3.4 少儿图书消费者 .....................................................................................................546
3.5 图书消费的宏观环境 ...........................................................................................549
第四章 影响少儿图书市场消费需求的影响因素探讨 ........................................551
4.1 图书价格 ....................................................................................................................551
4.2 消费者收入 ...............................................................................................................554
4.3 替代品和消费者对于价格的预期 ..................................................................556
4.4 政策因素 ....................................................................................................................556
第五章 建立模型 ........................................................................................559
5.1 函数表达式 ...............................................................................................................559
5.2 消费函数变量选择 ................................................................................................559
5.3 协整分析和检验 .....................................................................................................559
5.4 数据来源和数据处理过程 .................................................................................560
第六章 模型解释、建议与本文的不足 ..........................................................565
6.1 模型解释 ....................................................................................................................565
6.2 分析结论 ....................................................................................................................566
6.3 建议 ..............................................................................................................................566
6.4 本文的不足之处 .....................................................................................................567
参考文献 ....................................................................................................569
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