供给侧改革促进少儿图书出版产业集中度提升

摘要

党的十八大以来，党和国家更加重视文化建设，文化自信是实现中国梦的重要方面。出版业肩负着繁荣文化事业和发展文化产业的双重使命，而少儿图书出版关系到我国少年儿童的启蒙教育，具有基础性作用。推进少儿图书出版供给侧结构性改革，对于少儿图书出版以及整个出版业的健康发展，对于少年儿童的培养，对于文化建设都具有重要的现实意义。

近年来，有300多家图书出版社涉足少儿图书出版领域，少儿图书出版品种数、总印数、定价总金额等各项指标持续上升，相比其他各类图书出版（如文学、社科、科技类）增速明显较快。同时，少儿图书的国外版权引进数量占总品种数和定价总金额的比重不断下降，原创占比不断提升。可以看出，少儿图书出版由原来的增加图书品种、扩大生产规模以及大量引进少儿图书版权等粗放模式，正逐步转向原创作品比重大幅度增加、原创精品图书和畅销书不断涌现的高质量发展的新阶段。整体来讲，少儿图书出版呈现出稳步发展的局面。

然而，少儿图书出版繁荣发展的背后，也存在着严重的结构性问题。最显著的问题就是少儿图书市场供求严重不均衡，存在明显的供给过剩，且日益严峻。从近几年的统计数据来看，全国少儿图书每年的总印数远远大于总销量。如2012年少儿图书总印数3.10亿册，总销量1.90亿册，相差1.2亿册；2016年少儿图书总印数7.78亿册，总销量2.00亿册，相差5.78亿册；2017年少儿图书总印数8.20亿册，总销量2.12亿册，相差6.08亿册。库存图书数量逐年上升，6年间几乎翻了3倍。

上述问题充分说明少儿图书市场供给侧和需求侧对接不充分，供给过剩，有效供给不足，满足不了不断变化的市场需求。少儿图书市场供给侧结构性改革已经成为少儿图书出版健康发展的当务之急。

本文以供给侧结构性改革为视角，对少儿图书出版产业集中度进行测算和整体判断，进而研究市场结构问题。本文选取了总品种数、新品种数、总印数和定价总金额四个指标分别计算了少儿图书出版产业的集中度，然后对四个指标进行赋权，从而测算出行业综合集中度指数。通过计算并综合有关因素，得到如下结论：我国少儿图书出版产业属于原子型产业，即使按照CR20也仅仅达到中下集中寡占型，远远没有实现资源的有效配置。在产业集中度测算和产业结构分析的基础上，本文分析和总结了典型出版社领先行业的具体做法。

通过对产业绝对集中度的测算、对产业结构以及典型出版社的分析研究，本文认为影响我国少儿图书出版产业集中度的原因是：产业布局不合理，规模经济不明显；产业进入存在壁垒；竞争不充分，资源流动性不足。最后，对我国少儿图书出版的供给侧结构性改革从宏观层面上和微观层面上分别提出了对策性建议。

关键词：少儿图书出版；产业集中度；产业结构；供给侧结构性改革

Abstract

Since the 18th national congress of the CPC,the Party and the country have attached more importance to cultural construction,and cultural confidence is an important aspect of realizing the Chinese dream.The publishing industry shoulders the dual mission of prospering the cultural undertakings and developing the cultural industry.Moreover,the publication of children’s books is related to the enlightenment of Chinese children and plays a fundamental role.Advancing the supply-side structural reform of children’s book publishing has important practical signif icance for the healthy development of children’s book publishing and the whole publishing industry,as well as for the cultivation of children and cultural construction.

In recent years,more than 300 book publishers have been involved in the f ield of children’s book publishing.The publishing of children’s books keeps increasing from various indexes,such as the number of varieties,the total print run,and the total amount of pricing,and the publication rate of children’s books is obviously faster than the other kinds of books(such as literature,social science,science and technology).At the same time,the foreign copyright import of children’s books accounted for the total number of book varieties and the total pricing constantly declined and the proportion of original works keeps increasingly.It can be seen that the extensive mode of children’s book publishing,such as increasing the variety of books published,expanding the production scale,and the massive introduction of children’s book copyright,is gradually turning to the new stage of high-quality development that the proportion of original works is greatly increased and original quality books and best-sellers keep incrementally.Overall speaking,children’s book publishing presents a steady development situation.

There are also serious structural problems behind the steady development of children’s book publishing.The most obvious problem is the serious imbalance between the supply and demand of children’s books.According to the statistics of recent years,the annual total print volume of children’s books is much larger than the total sales volume.For example,the total print volume of children’s books in 2012 was 310 million copies and the total sales volume was 190million copies,which cause a difference of 120 million copies.In 2016,the total print run of children’s books was 778million and the total sales volume was 200 million,which cause a difference of 578million.The total print run of children’s books in 2017 was 820 million copies with a total sales of 212 million copies,which cause a difference of 608 million copies.Overproduction has increased year by year,almost tripling in six years.

The above problems fully indicate that the connection between the supply side and the demand side of the children’s book market is not sufficient that the supply is excessive and the effective supply is insufficient,which cannot meet the constantly changing market demand.Therefore,the supply-side structural reform of the children’s book market has become an urgent matter for the healthy development of children’s book publishing.

From the perspective of supply-side structural reform,this paper measures and makes overall judgment on the concentration of children’s book publishing industry,and provides the basis for the research on market structure.In this study,four indexes including total variety number,new variety number,total print number and total pricing amount were selected to calculate the concentration degree of children’s book publishing industry.Then the four indicators are weighted to calculate the comprehensive concentration index of the industry.The following conclusions can be obtained by calculating and integrating related factors:China’s children’s book publishing industry belongs to the atomic industry.Even according to CR20,it only reaches the middle and lower centralized oligopoly,which is far from the effective allocation of resources.On the basis of the concentration measurement and the analysis of industrial structure,this paper analyzes and summarizes the specif ic practices of the leading industries of typical publishing houses.

Through the calculation of the absolute concentration degree of the industry,the analysis of the industrial structure and the typical publishing houses,this paper believes that the reasons influencing the concentration degree of China’s children’s book publishing industry are as follows：unreasonable industrial layout,insignificant scale economy,barriers of industry entry,insuff icient competition and scarce resource liquidity.Finally,the author puts forward some specif ic suggestions on the supply-side reform of children’s book publishing in China from the macro level and the micro level.

Key words:Children’s book publishing; Degree of industrial concentration;Industrial structure; Supply-side structural reform.

目录 CONTENTS

第1章　绪论..............................................................................................144

1.1　研究背景及问题的提出......................................................................................144

1.2　研究目的及意义.....................................................................................................145

1.3　文献综述....................................................................................................................146

1.4　理论依据、研究方法及数据来源..................................................................150

1.5　研究的重点、难点及主要创新点..................................................................151(https://www.xing528.com)

1.6　概念界定....................................................................................................................152

第2章　少儿图书出版产业集中度测算...........................................................156

2.1　少儿图书出版产业集中度计算指标选取...................................................156

2.2　少儿图书出版产业的单项集中度与综合集中度....................................159

2.3　少儿图书出版产业集中度的计算..................................................................160

2.4　集中度分析的基本结论......................................................................................164

第3章　少儿图书出版产业结构分析..............................................................165

3.1　绝对集中度分析的局限性.................................................................................165

3.2　少儿图书出版产业规模及其增长..................................................................165

3.3　少儿图书出版规模结构分析............................................................................171

3.4　本章结论....................................................................................................................177

第4章　典型出版社分析..............................................................................179

4.1　典型出版社构成.....................................................................................................179

4.2　典型出版社的成功之道......................................................................................181

第5章　少儿图书出版产业供给侧结构性改革的建议........................................184

5.1　我国少儿图书出版产业结构性问题.............................................................184

5.2　宏观层面的对策建议...........................................................................................186

5.3　微观层面的对策建议...........................................................................................188

第6章　结论与展望....................................................................................192

6.1　主要结论....................................................................................................................192

6.2　下一步展望...............................................................................................................193

参考文献.....................................................................................................194