卜振兴[2]
摘要 从全球范围来看,提升货币政策透明度已经成为一种趋势。围绕着货币政策透明度政策效果的问题,本文主要做了以下两方面的工作:一是通过理论推导,论证了货币政策透明度对于宏观经济效应的影响;二是通过运用TVP-SV-VAR模型对我国货币政策透明度与宏观经济波动的关系进行了实证检验。无论是理论推导还是实证检验均表明,货币政策透明度有助于减少宏观经济波动,提升货币政策效果。为了进一步发挥货币政策透明度在政策执行中的效果,中央银行应进一步加强与公众的交流和沟通,不断提升政策透明度的水平。
关键词 货币政策透明度;政策有效性;TVP-SV-VAR模型
Research on the Effectiveness of China's M onetary Policy Transparency(www.xing528.com)
BU Zhen-xing
Abstract:From a global point of view,improving the transparency of monetary policy is now becoming an international trend.Around the effect of monetary policy transparency policy issues,this paper makes the work of some following aspects mainly.First of all,the article demonstrates the impaction of monetary policy transparency on China'smacro-economy through theoretical deducing;secondly,this paper tests positively the relation between the monetary policy transparency and the macroeconomic fluctuations in China by using time-varying parameters vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility model.By theoretical deduction and empirical test,it is indicated that moneraty policy transparency contributes to reduce macroeconomic fluctuations,and improve the effect of monetary policy.In order to take better advantage effect of the monetary policy transparency in policy implementation,the central bank should further strengthen exchanges and communication with the public,and enhance the level of policy transparency continuously.
Key Words:Monetary Policy Transparency;Policy Effectiveness;Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive with Stochastic Volatility
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