协天紫光[2] 张亚斌[3] 赵景峰[4]
摘要 本文以2005—2014年“一带一路”沿线68个代表性国家对外直接投资面板数据为基础，分别从政府稳定性、投资环境、腐败控制、法治环境等维度研究了东道国政治风险对中国OFDI区位选择的影响。同时还考察了投资者保护强度和双边投资协定在防范与化解投资风险、保护中国OFDI方面的作用。研究表明：中国OFDI整体以政治风险规避型为主，不太关心东道国的腐败控制，更关心其政府稳定性和投资环境，并倾向于避开法律体系严格的国家；投资者保护也是中国OFDI的决定性因素，并在不同条件下与政治风险异质性产生不同强度的交互作用。中国经济总量对OFDI表现出显著促进作用，而东道国市场规模、距离成本和税负水平呈现出显著负向效应。最后，针对上述研究结论提出了相应的政策建议。
关键词 政治风险；投资者保护；对外直接投资；区位选择
Political Risk，Investor Protection and China's OFDIChoice(www.xing528.com)
XIETIAN Zi-guang，ZHANG Ya-bin，ZHAO Jing-feng
Abstract：Based on the 2005—2014 OFDIpenal data from 68 representative counties along the road，the paper analyzes the political risk factors which affect China's OFDI location choice from four different angels including the stability of host government，investment environment，corruption control and legal environment.In addition，it also examines the function of the intensity of the host country investor protection and the bilateral investment treaties signed with China in against and dissolving the investment risk，and protecting China's overseas investment.The results show that the overseas investment of Chinese enterprises is dominated by political risk aversion.In particular，China's OFDI is less concerned with corruption control in the other country，more concerned with stability and investment environment in host countries，and tends to avoid countries with a strict legal system.In addition，host country investor protection is also a decisive factor in China's OFDI and has different interactions with host country's heterogeneity of political risk under different conditions.The China market scale presents a significant positive effect to OFDI，but the host country market scale，cost of distance and tax burden level all present a significant negative effect.Finally，in view of the above research，the conclusion puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
Key Words：Political Risk；Investor Protection；Outward Foreign Direct Investment；Location Choice
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