科技规划解决世博难题，为现代城市提供可靠技术

Comprehensive Environment Simulation Planning Oriented

世博园区成功有缘由

Reasons for the Success of Expo Park

2010年上海世博会在许多方面创造了历史，而在世博筹备之初，园区规划面临着多方面的重大挑战。首先，国际咨询机构预测参观人次超过7 000万，这对园区的安全运营和空间组织提出了难题；其次，作为历史上第一次以城市为主题的世博会，世博园在自身建设中必须为未来的城市可持续发展建立标杆，在规划建设的不同层面中以最大化的环境价值呼应“城市让生活更美好”的世博主题；再次，在建设期不足30个月、浦西老江南造船厂场地清空距离世博开幕甚至不足1年的紧张情况下，要求所有建设决策具有快速性与科学性。然而，国内外现有的规划技术在对人流、环境、生态、节能等方面的预测和集成应用方面存在着巨大的空白，从而对科学规划世博提出了根本性挑战。为此，研发了多系统模拟与布局推导技术，不仅有预见性地从规划层面解决了世博园区运营可能出现的各种难题，为世博园区规划的科学制订及场馆建设、运营管理及后续利用提供了可靠的技术保障，也为未来其他城市的规划建设提供了成熟的技术应用。

2010 Shanghai World Expo created history in many aspects， however we were confronted with lots of major challenges in the park planning during the preparation of the Expo. First of all， an international consulting organization predicted more than 70 million visitors， which imposed great pressure on the safe operation and spatial organization of the Expo site. Second， as the first city-themed World Expo， the site should be established as a bench-marking example of sustainable urban development， maximizing environmental values in different layers to echo with the Expo theme of “Better City， Better Life”. Third， within the given 30 months for construction，and less than 1 year for the removal and evacuation in the area around old Jiangnan Shipyard in Puxi District， all decision-making regarding the construction should be quick and scientific. However， there was a huge gap in the planning technological areas of prediction and integrated application of elements such as crowds， environment，ecology and energy efficiency elements， which was an essential challenge for the scientific planning of WorldExpo Site. Under this background， the project developed the multi-system simulation and layout assessment technology， with which， a number of problematic issues of Expo Site operation were predicted and solved， and technological support was provided to the scientific site planning， pavilions construction， operational management and post-Expo application， the mode of which is duplicable in many other future cities.

基于复杂人流动态模拟的布局优化技术

Layout Optimization Technology Based on Dynamic Simulation of Complex Flow

根据世博规划前期预测，世博会期间，特别是周末和节假日，园区将承受巨大的人流压力。由于各场馆吸引程度不一，客流极有可能在园区整体高密度下又以高度不均衡的状态无序流动，进一步造成设施压力，并提高导致重大拥挤踩踏事故发生的可能性。因此，对初步规划方案下的人流情况及其承载力进行模拟，将有助于从空间安排上消除安全隐患，为科学合理的设施布局以及运营期间的客流疏导提供依据。通过建立参观者的参观行为模型，运用最大效用理论建构参观者复杂参观行为时空分布的算法；量化推演了40、60和80万参观人次等多种规模下，人次、人流和空间密度的总体特征和时空分布特征，重点分析极端高峰规模日世博园区人流特征，采用网格化人流模拟技术，运用空间插值方法推算参观行为在整个园区内的分布，精细捕捉了100万极端高峰参观人次规模下的十大拥挤事故高危场所；根据科学模拟的结果，提出危险点附近重点场馆布局的调整建议；为对应100万参观人次极端规模状态，设置了四大公园，预设20万人的外溢空间；基于需求预测进行餐饮、购物、援助、公厕等公共服务设施配比指标优化；应对极端恶劣气候条件下遮雨、避阳设施的不足，对设计方案进行调整与优化。

The early-stage preparation of Expo planning had predicted that Expo Site would have to contain extremely large flow of visitors， especially during weekends and holidays. And as different pavilions would attract different crowds of different scales， the crowds would flow in a highly unbalanced manner in the generally high-density site， which would in turn pose more pressure on the infrastructure service and create more risks of serious stampede accidents. Therefore， the simulation of visitor flows and the bearing capacity of the site， as in the preliminary plan， would help eliminate potential safety hazards and provide support to the scientific allocation of infrastructure service and crowds diverting and evacuating during the Expo period. The research set up a visitors’behavior mode and developed an algorithm for the spatial and temporal distribution of visitors’ complex visiting behavior， using maximum utility theory. Using this mode， the research conducted quantitative simulations on the general features and spatial-temporal distribution features of visitors， crowd-flows and spatial density under the predicted situations of 400 000， 600 000 and 800 000 visitors. The simulation focused on the crowd features on the days with possible extreme high density. The research applied grid crowd simulation technology and the space interpolation method to calculate the distribution of visitors’ behaviors all over the site. 10 major spots with high risk of stampede accidents under the situation of 1 million visitors were precisely detected. According to the finding of this scientific simulation， the proposal of relocated the layout of pavilions surrounding the highrisk spots was made. And to tackle the challenging situation of 1 million visitors， 4 major parks were designed as the spillover space that could contain 200 000 visitors. The distribution indices of services such as food supply，shopping， aids， and rest rooms are optimized according to the demands prediction. Designing plan was also adjusted and optimized to address to the possible deficiency of rain shelter and sunlight shading under extreme weather conditions.

基于复杂人流动态模拟的世博园区危险点预判与现场实景对比
Risk spots predicted by complex crowd dynamic simulation and the real scenes

基于环境系统集成模拟的规划布局评价与优化技术

Layout Evaluation and Optimization Technology Based on Integrated Environmental System Simulation

为保障世博会规划的科学性，应对盛夏季节高能耗压力下的节能减排示范需求，改善高密度参观者在室外空间热湿条件下的参观体验，研发了多项基于自然系统模拟的规划设计方案并进行了集成和应用。采用分区建立三维数值模型方式，设定数值风洞边界；采用对钝体流动比较适合的物理模型，首次进行大规模城市尺度的自然风场数值模拟；通过基于自然风场和日照的综合模拟与评价，对场馆建筑朝向进行优化；大规模组织自然通风，为节能减排设施布点布线提供依据；减少园区的整体能耗以及随之带来的高碳排量，对未来城市产能系统空间配置进行全面的实验和示范。(www.xing528.com)

The research developed， integrated and actually applied a number of natural system simulation based planning methods to address to issues including preserving the scientific nature of the Expo planning， being the pilot example of energy efficiency and emission reduction under the pressure of high energy consumption in summer， and improving visitors’ experience in a high-density and hot-humid outdoor environment. Numerical wind tunnel boundaries was set with the application of the zoned 3D numerical model；the fist large city-scalenatural wind field numerical simulation was conducted using the physical model more adaptable to blunts flows.With the findings of comprehensive simulation and evaluation of natural wind field and sunlight， the building orientation of Expo pavilions were optimized and large-scale natural ventilation was realized， which had provided sound basis for the layout design of energy efficiency services that would reduce the overall energy consumption and the consequence carbon emission of the Expo site. This practice had proven to be an all-sided experiment and model for the spatial allocation of capacity systems in future cities.

世博园区的自然风场模拟
Simulation of natural wind field of Expo Site

应用仿真技术的规划建设全过程决策平台研发

The Development of the Simulation Technology Based Overall Process Decision-making Platform for Urban Planning and Construction

为便于领导作出快速科学的建设决策，将所有的模拟与优化技术整合为一个可视化模拟决策平台项目，完成了各种规划方案的集成模拟分析和运行效果评估；对园区方案的安全性进行诊断，模拟100万参观人次规模状态下人群参观行为分布状态，有效规避了一般大型工程项目由于沟通不顺畅、信息不完备、协调不得力而引发的工期、成本、实施效果等问题，在巨大的工期压力下为领导在海量信息前快速科学决策提供了及时、互动的直接依据。

This part of the research aims to facilitate city leaders’ prompt and scientific decision-makings regarding urban construction. All simulation and optimization technologies were integrated into one visual decisionmaking simulation platform. A variety of plans had undergone the integrated simulation analysis and operation effect assessment through the developed technology. After simulating layout features of an estimated 1 million visitors’ behavior， the research had successfully helped prevent problems regarding construction period， cost and implementation effect caused by inefficient communication， information deficiency， or incapable coordination，which are common in other large-scale engineering projects. The findings of the research have provided timely and integrative direct basis for the quick and scientific decision-makings of city leaders， who were facing massive information and under great pressure of short construction period.

该技术为世博园区规划建设各个阶段的科学制订及场馆建设、运营管理和后续利用提供了可靠的依据，为园区经受极端高峰日103万参观人数的历史性压力和40多天高温日的历史性考验提供了关键的技术保障，为世博举办减少了约10 000户居民拆迁，节约了近2亿拆迁成本，降低了决策时间成本和重复建设成本，为保障工期与社会和谐做出了重大贡献。在节约集约、生态宜居、和谐发展的新型城镇化建设过程中，该技术对以人的需求和生态节能为导向、更趋科学化精细化的城市地区开发的规划设计具有重大的应用和推广价值。

世博园区可视化模拟决策平台
Visual simulation decision-making platform for World Expo

The technology has laid sound fundamentals for the scientific planning of World Expo Site at its different planning stages， pavilions construction， operation and management and post-Expo utility. With the crucial technological support from the research， the Expo Site has successfully get through the challenge of 1.03 million visitors on the extreme peak days and extreme hot weather with the air temperature exceeding 40 ℃. The plan of Expo Site has protected about 10 000 households from removal， saving the removal cost of about 200 million RMB， reducing the time spent on decision making and cost of repeated constructions. Therefore， the research has made major contribution to the on-time completion and social harmony. In the process of economical，energy efficient and harmonious New Urbanization， the technologies developed in the research are of significant application and promotion values to planning and design for urban area development that pursuits the fulfillment of human demands， ecological vale， energy conservation and scientific and intensive implementations.

（同济大学和上海世博会事务协调局（原）等单位供稿，祁凌云等整理）

(Contributed by Tongji University ＆ Former Shanghai World Expo Coordination Bureau， sorted by Qi Lingyun)