Weather Forecast to Foretell the Disasters
气象灾害早预防
Early Warning on Meteorological Disaster
在全球变暖的气候背景下，极端天气造成的气象灾害呈明显上升趋势，尤其是台风、暴雨、雷雨大风、雷电、持续高温，强寒潮和暴雪等气象灾害已成为严重威胁城市安全的主要自然灾害。例如， 2012年北京“7.21”暴雨就造成超过70人死亡，使得城市交通瘫痪；2013年上海“9.13”暴雨、“10.8”暴雨也给城市运行和安全带来了严重影响。此外，极端天气事件，特别是影响飞行安全的危险天气事件频发，也对航空天气预报的精确性、时效性提出了更高的要求。随着航空业的迅猛发展，气象因素影响航空业效率的比重进一步突出，因此，加强对极端天气预报预警决策关键技术的研究与应用就具有很大的现实意义。
In the context of global warming， meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather are evidently rising，especially typhoons， heavy rain， thunderstorms， lightning， continuous high temperature strong cold tide， blizzard and other meteorological disasters， which have become a serious threat to urban safety. For example， the “7.21”heavy rain in July， 21， 2012 in Beijing caused more than 70 deaths and wreaked havoc on urban traffic; the “9.13”heavy rain and “10.8” heavy rain in Shanghai 2013 had seriously damaged city operation and urban security. In addition， extreme weather events， especially dangerous weather events are affecting flight safety， which brought higher demand for the accuracy and timeliness of aviation weather forecasts. With the rapid development of the aviation industry， the ratio of meteorological factors affecting aviation efficiency has become higher， which makes it of great practical significance to improve the research and application of key technologies on extreme weather forecast and decision-making.
同时，随着全球气候变化以及城镇化快速发展，城市热岛效应、雨岛效应明显。上海等国内多数城市雨水排水系统的设计标准较低，遭遇台风暴雨的可能性极大。构建城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控上海示范平台，可为城市内涝预警和雨水径流管控信息化平台建设和推广提供应用实践和技术参考。
At the same time， with the fast changes in global climate and rapid development of urbanization， urban heat island effect， rain island effect become more obvious. In a frequency of one year at a time， Shanghai and other cities in China have high possibility in suffering typhoon and heavy rain disasters with low design standards in rainwater drainage system. As a result， the practice of building demonstration platform for comprehensive management and control in urban waterlogging pre-warning and rainwater runoff can provide application and technical reference for platform building and promotion.
极端天气预报预警决策关键技术
Key Technology of Extreme Weather Prediction and Early Warning Decision
极端天气历史个例检索技术：通过收集近年来出现的台风、暴雨和强对流等灾害性天气历史数据，分类分析其出现的天气背景，建立灾害性天气历史个例库，并建立检索平台，根据灾害性天气类型和灾害性天气的落区，进行“天气系统相似”和“关键区相似”检索，“配准”极端天气历史个例，帮助预报员判断可能出现的灾害性天气和影响程度。
Historical one-off case retrieval technology on extreme weathers: Through historical data collection of typhoons， storms and strong convective weather and other severe weather in recent years， it classifies and analyzes the synoptic background to build a one-off disaster weather history bank and establish a search platform.According to the patterns and locations of the severe weather and catastrophic weather conditions， we can help forecasters to determine possible impact of disastrous weather conditions by narrowing the range in the setting of“similar weather system” and “similar key area” to pinpoint historical one-off extreme weather cases.
数值预报检验技术：基于现有业务数值预报模式，不仅采用传统的检验方法对预报要素的准确率、模式的稳定性及与实况资料的拟合度进行了检验，还建立了光流法检验技术对天气系统预报场的偏差进行检验。建立了预报实时检验平台，定量评估数值预报模式对台风、暴雨、高温和强对流天气系统的预报误差。
Numerical forecasting technology: Based on numerical forecasting of the existing business model， we tested not only the accuracy of the forecast factors， the stability of the model and the fitting degree of the actual data by traditional test method， but also established optical flow test for weather forecast deviations and real-time test platform with quantitative evaluation on forecasting errors of weather systems like typhoon， rainstorm， high temperature and strong convective weather system.
极端天气精细化预报预警制作技术：依托上海市气象局一体化基础预报支撑系统，着眼于短时临近、短期预报的精细化格点预报制作，建立极端天气精细化预报制作平台。精细化格点数据以数值预报及其释用产品为基础，实现预报产品的精细化、产品制作的流程化和自动化。简化预报产品制作步骤，集预报预警产品的制作、分发、预报评定和检验等于一体，为极端天气的预报预警提供技术支撑和业务平台。
Extreme weather refinement forecasting and early warning technology: By relying on Shanghai Meteorological Bureau integrated basic forecasting support system and focusing on short-term approaching，short-term forecast of fine grid forecast making， we have established fine forecasting making platform for extremeweathers， fine grid data based on numerical forecast and its applications， which can realize the refinement of forecast making procedures systematically and automatically and simplify the production procedure. As a result，production， distribution， forecasting and inspection of forecasting and pre-warning are integrated for providing technical support for extreme weather forecast warning with a business platform.
极端天气集合预报分析及使用技术：建立集合预报产品的聚类分析技术，分析集合预报的最大可能天气和出现极端天气的“异常成员”的可能性。针对影响上海的极端天气，建立极端天气指数预报，研发早期预警产品，指数预报实现提前48小时对上海市发生暴雨的可能性提供预警。建立台风路径最优集合预报订正技术，对台风路径的预报误差改进效果显著，24小时预报误差的改进效果在3%以上，长预报时效的改进效果更明显。
Extreme weather collection forecast analysis and application technology: The establishment of a collection of forecasting product with cluster analysis technology can forecast the maximum possible weather and the emergence of extreme weather. In response to extreme weather conditions in Shanghai， we have established extreme weather forecasting， research and development of early warning products and index forecast to achieve 48 hours ahead of time early warning on the possibility of heavy rain in Shanghai. With typhoon path forecast collection technology， the improvement on forecasting typhoon path error is significant， and the improvement effect of 24-hour forecast error reached over 3%， improving effectiveness on long-term forecasting.
高分辨率航空数值预报技术
High Resolution Aerial Numerical Forecast Technology
提升高影响天气现象的预报能力，采用热启动技术，同时结合快速更新同化技术，通过对模式热启动过程中水物质配置方案及循环同化时间间隔等研究，确定最佳同化方案，实现逐小时更新模式预报结果，为进一步提高航空气象预报及大城市交通及防灾减灾提供了科学支撑。
Except for improving forecasting ability of high-impact weather phenomena， adopting hot start technology combined with rapid updated assimilation technology， we have also determined optimum assimilation approach through researches on aqueous material configuration scheme in hot-start mode process and cycle assimilation time interval to achieve hourly updated pattern prediction results， which provides scientific support for further improving aviation weather forecast and metropolitan traffic and disaster prevention and mitigation.
具有丰富的航空气象数值预报产品，基于高分辨率数值预报产品，研发了有针对性的航空气象产品，并持续针对用户开发，重点关注区域中小尺度天气和单站及航路航空危险天气变化（如暴雨、大风、大雾、雷暴、台风等），且产品更新时间频繁，并可有效把握系统最新变化，对于优化机场运营、提高机场地勤管理效率有重要价值，并能为高空航线设计安全提供依据。
Numerical forecast products with rich aeronautical meteorological value based on high-resolution numerical forecast products has develope targeted aeronautical meteorological products and provided sustainable targetuser development. By focusing on dangerous weather changes (such as heavy rain， strong wind， heavy fog，thunderstorms， typhoons， etc.) in regional small and medium scale weather and single station and route aviation.With frequent product updates， we can effectively grasp the latest changes in the system. It is of great value to optimize airport operation and improve airport ground management efficiency， which can provide evidence for high-altitude route design safety.
航空高影响天气预报部分产品示例图（a：能见度；b：雷达；c：云底高度）
Products of high-impact weather forecasting (a: visibility; b: radar reflectivity; c: cloud base height)(www.xing528.com)
城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控平台构建
Integrated Control Platform for Urban Waterlogging Pre-warning and Rainwater Runoff
内涝预警技术：随着雷达预报技术、模拟引擎和集成技术的发展，排水系统防汛实时调度开始探索在线实际应用。上海创新应用基于排水系统实时模型的内涝预警技术，并实时追踪国际最新动态，持续维护更新。
Waterlogging pre-warning technology: With the development of radar forecast technology， simulation engine and integrated technology， real-time dispatching of drainage system for flood prevention began to explore practical online application. Shanghai innovative application is based on real-time drainage system model ofwaterlogging pre-warning technology to realize real-time tracking of the latest international situation and provide continuous maintenance updates.
城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控平台客户端
Integrated urban flooding pre-warning and integrated storm water runoff control platform client
基于排水管网模型的径流管控技术：在GIS基础数据库的支持下，通过遥感影像、红外成像分析技术或测绘技术，建立雨水产汇流模型。构建技术普适的排水系统管网模型（包括各种附属构筑物和控制设施），利用该模型进行排水系统现状问题诊断与运行方案优化。根据历史典型降雨事件，划分降雨等级，通过模型模拟预测相应的降雨事件后果，建立以积水深度、范围、时长等为要素的四色预警等级，优化调度运行方案，结合周边地形地貌作出相应的财产、交通损失预判，研究制定相应的应急预案。形成应用于径流管理的排水管网模型搭建与应用手册。
Drainage pipeline network model based on the rainfall-runoff control technology: With GIS database， we can build rain water runoff model through remote sensing image， infrared imaging analysis technique or mapping technology. The construction of adaptive technology for drainage system pipeline network model which include various ancillary structures and control facilities can be used for optimizing the current situation and operation scheme of the drainage system. The rainfall level is divided according to typical historical rainfall events for simulating and predicting on relevant precipitation consequences. Dispatching operation scheme is optimized with four-color warning level of depth， range and lengths of waterlogging to anticipate property damage， traffic loses and make corresponding contingency plans with peripheral geographic and geomorphologic conditions. Therefore，the drainage pipeline network model construction and application manual can be made for water runoff control.
城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控平台：整合城市地表产汇流模型、排水管网模型、防汛实时预警等城市内涝管控子系统以及城市雨情、水情、排水设施运行工情等实时监测系统、运行调度系统、辅助决策系统等，构建城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控上海示范平台，为城市内涝预警和雨水径流管控信息化平台建设和推广应用提供了先进科技手段。
Urban waterlogging pre-warning and rainwater runoff integrated control platform: Urban waterlogging subsystem of urban surface generation confluence model， drainage network model， real-time pre-warning on flood control and real-time monitoring， operating and dispatching， aided decision-making system for urban rain，water conditions， drainage facilities etc. are integrated to build urban waterlogging pre-warning and rainfallrunoff integrated control model platform for information platform building and advanced technology promotion in urban waterlogging pre-warning and rainfall-runoff.
极端天气预报预警决策关键技术和成果在上海中心气象台的业务运行中得到推广应用，明显提高了灾害性天气的预报能力和精细化水平，极大提升了预报预测能力，在城市安全运行和防灾减灾的预报服务中发挥了积极的作用，取得了显著的社会效益。
The key technologies and achievements in extreme weather forecast and early warning decision-making are popularized and applied in the operation of Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory， which obviously improved the ability of disaster weather forecast， and enhanced the ability of predicting and forecasting and played a positive role in urban safety operation and disaster prevention and mitigation forecast service with significant social benefits.
开发的航空气象数值预报产品已在东方航空股份有限公司得到推广应用，对其保障航班安全、提高运行效率、节约公司成本等收到较好效果。
The aviation weather forecasting products have been developed and put into application in the Oriental Airlines Co.， Ltd. for flight safety， operational efficiency improvement and company cost-saving which received good results.
上海市城市排水有限公司建立的城市内涝预警与雨水径流综合管控平台已基本实现平稳运行，通过不断地细化和改善，预报精度和响应速度基本达到上海汛期预警要求，在近几年的麦莎、海葵等灾害天气期间，平台对区域内积水情况进行了准确预报，对该公司防汛应急响应提供了有力的支撑。
Shanghai Urban Drainage Co.， Ltd. has established integrated control platform for urban waterlogging warning and rainwater runoff system in smooth operation. With continuous refinement and improvement， the forecasting accuracy and response speed have met Shanghai flood warning requirements. In recent years， Matsa，Haikui and other disastrous weather have been forecast by the platform， which provided strong support for regional waterlogging conditions forecast and emergency response for flood control.
极端天气预报预警决策关键技术的研究与应用，目的在于提高气象部门对灾害性天气的预报预警能力，提升政府及公众对极端天气的有效应对和防御能力。因此，本项目的成果可以在全国气象、水文水务各部门进行推广应用，具有良好的应用前景。
The research and application of key technologies in forecasting extreme weathers aiming in improving the forecasting and warning ability of meteorological departments and enhancing effective response and defense ability of the government and the public to extreme weathers. Therefore， the results of this project can be applied in the national meteorological， hydrology and water sector for promotion with good application prospects.
实现了民用航空器探测数据在气象数值业务预报系统中的实时应用，对提高数值预报的预报水平具有重要意义。并以此为基础加强业界合作，建立更完善的飞机探测资料数据集，利用各行业的优势进一步开展科研项目或完善决策管理体系，对于有效利用社会资源提高效益、促进行业间现代化科学发展都具有重要的价值。
The realization of real-time application of civil aircraft probing data in meteorological numerical data forecasting system is of great importance to improve the numerical forecasting level， which serves as basis to strengthen the industry cooperation and establish a better aircraft detection data collection. Advantages of various industries can be used for further development on scientific research projects or improvement on decision-making management system to effectively exploit social resources， improve efficiency and modernize inter-industrial scientific development.
基于排水系统实时模型的内涝预警技术，集成排水系统遥测数据、天气预报、1维2维水力模型和网页发布等应用系统，可实现排水系统暴雨积水的预报预警和泵站调度的决策支持。编制的内涝预警及径流管理的排水管网模型搭建与应用手册，为建立城市排水防汛实时预报与决策支持系统提供了引领示范，并可为其他城市防汛安全保障提供有益参照，对于规模化的推广应用具有广阔的前景。
Based on real-time modeling of the drainage system for waterlogging warning technology， the integrated drainage system telemetry data， weather forecast， 1-D 2-D hydraulic model and webpage publishing system can realize forecasting and warning of storm water accumulation and provide decision support of scheduling strategies of pumping stations. The construction and application manual of the drainage network model for waterlogging warning and runoff management provides a demonstration for the establishment of real-time forecasting and decision support system for urban drainage and flood control， which serves as a useful reference for other urban flood safety flood control with a broad prospect.
（上海市气象局等单位供稿，虞俭等整理）
(Contributed by Shanghai Meteorological Bureau， sorted by Yu Jian)
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