中间投入品进口、产品转换与企业要素禀赋结构升级
钱学锋 王备[1]
《经济研究》2017年第1期
摘要： 本文构建了一个引入多要素投入和中间投入品要素密度差异的一般均衡贸易模型，分析企业进口中间投入品及其产品转换行为对企业要素禀赋结构的影响。结论表明： 高生产率企业更倾向于进口中间投入品； 企业会根据中间投入品要素密度调整进口种类的数量与规模，发生产品转换行为； 通过进口产品转换，中间投入品生产要素流动引起企业要素密度的变动，最终提升企业的要素禀赋结构。经验研究显示，进口中间投入品提升了企业资本密度大约40 个百分点，进口产品转换则提升了企业资本密度大约26个百分点。企业通过进口的二元边际提升资本密度，但扩展边际的作用要大于集约边际。因此，通过进一步的贸易自由化、便利化，减少企业中间投入品进口及其进行产品转换的外部政策约束，将有助于提升企业的要素禀赋结构，并进而改善整个经济体的生产与贸易结构，最终推动中国贸易发展的转型与升级。
关键词： 进口中间投入品 产品转换 要素密度
Intermediate Inputs Import，Product Switching and Structure Upgrading of Firms’ Factor Endowment
Abstract： This paper investigates a lesser known effect of importing on firm performance： how a firm’s import switching affects its factor intensity.Our analysis uses a large panel data set of Chinas manufacturing firms from 2000 to 2006. We find that the average capital intensity of importers is significantly higher than that of non-importers. We also observed that most Chinese importers frequently experience product switching，which is defined as a new“extensive”margin of firm adjustment and reassignment of resources in Bernard et al. （2010，2011）.More importantly，our initial investigation shows that firms with import switching also have higher capital densities than firms without it.
What accounts for the increases in firms’ capital intensity and the heterogeneous outcome s across importers? To answer the question，we construct a model with heterogeneity of productivity both in firms and intermediate inputs as in Halpern et al. （2011）. In this model，a firm’s profitability depends on both its own productivity and the factor intensity of the intermediate inputs. Our model focuses on product switching as a driver of the observed change in firm factor intensity，which yields three main findings that are helpful in understanding importers’higher capital intensity. First，it reflects how firms make decisions on import switching according to their production efficiency and the comparative productivity advantage of intermediate inputs，which is related to capital intensity. High-productivity firms are more likely to experience product churning. Second，the factor density of imported varieties can affect firms’ import gains，which results in product switching. Imports of high capital intensity products would bring larger gains.Third，the model reveals the improving effect of import switching on firms’ factor endowment structures. Firms that have a huge increase in their capital-labor ratios replace low capital intensity intermediate inputs with high capital intensity imported varieties after product switching. Our findings provide a new angle for interpreting the relationship among importing，product switching，and firms’capital intensity.Moreover，our work shows that the classic H-O forces operate at the firm level and that product switching is a channel through which trade can affect the factor endowment of microenterprises.
To provide further evidence of product churning’ s effect on firms’factor intensity after importing，we use transaction level trade data merged with manufacturing firm data.Following Lall （2000），we classify imported intermediate inputs by factor density according to the SITC 3-digit product code to investigate whether firms’ product switching patterns are consistent with the model prediction that firms add varieties with high factor density and capital-intensive intermediate input products through importing.We find that over the 2000 — 2006 period，some importers in China added products that were more capital-intensive than their existing products and dropped those that were less capital-intensive in the year of importing.
Our empirical work shows that imports of intermediate inputs increase firms’capital density by about 40% and product switching by about 26%.This increases capital density through the dual margin，but the extensive margin has a larger role than the intensive margin. To tackle the potential estimation bias due to sample selection，we use the PSM method to compare importers and non-importers with similar ex-ante characteristics.We find that importers experienced a significant increase in capital intensity relative to non-importers，and the results are robust.Given the reality of China’s trade development，our findings indicate that by further trade liberalization and facilitation，the external policy constraints that restrict firm import intermediate inputs and product switching can be reduced，which will help to improve firms’factor endowment structures and the production and trade structure of the whole economy and will eventually drive China’s trade transformation.
Key Words： Importing； Intermediate Inputs； Product Switching； Factor Intensity
中间品贸易、价值链嵌入与国际分工收益： 基于中国的分析
彭支伟 张伯伟[2]
《世界经济》2017年第10期
摘要：本文构建一个具备微观基础的两国模型，刻画了中国同世界其他地区（ ROW） 之间的价值链分工。通过参数调校，使模型数值解与现实产出及贸易结构相吻合，并以此估算1995—2014 年中国和ROW 在彼此产出中的收益分配格局，分析决定分工收益的基本因素。研究结果表明，ROW 从中国获得的收益份额大致经历了一个“倒V形”变化过程，其收益更多源自中间品出口的数量渗透；中国从ROW 获得的收益份额持续提高，且较多地归因于出口中间品在国外价值链中的嵌入度提升。在2006 年以后，中国的全球分工地位明显改善。知识密集型制造业主导了中国与ROW 之间的收益分配格局，其出口的中间品在外部价值链中的嵌入深度呈强劲上升趋势。
关键词： 价值链 分工要素收益 分工地位
Trade in Intermediates，Value Chain Embeddedness and
International Specialization Earning： An Empirical Study on China
Abstract： We construct a two-country model with micro-foundation to depict the Value-Chain Specialization between China and the rest of the world （ ROW），in which the Global Value Chain （ GVC） is viewed as the interconnection of the two country’s domestic production networks. We make its numerical solutions precisely replicate the real output and trade structures via parameter calibration，so as to estimate the earning distribution between China and ROW as well as the determinants during 1995—2014. The results suggest that，in terms of intermediate goods’ contribution to final production，ROW’s earning share in China underwent largely an inverted“V”shape curve，and it stems relatively heavier from intermediate inputs’ quantity penetration into China’s domestic production networks. China’s earning share from ROW obtained a continuous growth during the sample period，and relies more intensively on the depth of intermediate goods’embeddedness into the overseas value chain. China’s overall position in the GVC acquired steady improvement after 2006. On the industry level，it is the manufacturing sectors （ particularly the knowledge-intensive ones） that dominate the earning distribution between China and ROW. The intermediate inputs exported by China’s knowledge-intensive industries exhibited robust growth both in terms of value chain embeddedness and quantity penetration into the ROW production networks.
Key Words： Value Chain Specialization；Factor Earnings；Specialization Status
中间品进口、贸易类型与企业出口产品质量——基于中国企业微观数据的研究
马述忠 吴国杰[3]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2016年第11期
摘要：本文首先对企业出口产品质量进行了测算，并进一步分析了是否进口中间品，以及不同贸易类型的中间品进口对企业出口产品质量的影响。研究发现：中间品进口具有显著的促进作用；一般贸易中间品进口不具有促进作用；与来料加工中间品进口相比，进料加工中间品进口促进作用更加显著和稳健；随着产品质量的提升，一般贸易中间品进口的抑制效应减弱，来料加工中间品进口的促进作用增强，进料加工中间品的影响呈“U”形关系。
关键词：中间品 贸易类型 出口产品
Intermediate Goods Imports，Trade Types and the Quality of Export Products
Abstract：We calculate the quality of export products，and analyze the impact of intermediate goods imports and intermediate goods imports of different trade types on the quality of export products，and find that Intermediate goods imports of general trade have an inhibition effect on the quality of export products，intermediates goods imports of processing trade have a promoting effect，and the feeding processing imports’ effect are more significant and steady. As the quality of export products promotion，the inhibition effect of general trade imports will weaken，the promoting effect of processing on order imports will enhance，the effect of feeding processing imports will show a “U” shaped relationship.
Key Words： Intermediate Goods； Trade Types； Export Products
张文城 盛斌[4]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2017年第8期
摘要：研究目标：测算1995—2009年中国增加值出口排污强度，分析其变化趋势及影响因素。研究方法：利用多区域投入产出模型构建八种空气污染物的增加值出口排污强度，利用结构分解方法考察其变化的影响因素。研究发现：中国增加值出口排污强度出现显著的下降，但仍远高于其他出口强国。中国增加值出口排污强度下降主要源于生产部门直接排污强度的下降。相反，2000年以来中间投入结构变化不利于增加值排污强度的下降。这两个因素也是造成中国增加值排污强度与发达国家存在差异的主要因素。研究创新：构建增加值排污强度指标来考察中国出口环境成本及其影响因素。研究价值：增进对中国出口环境成本变化趋势及其影响因素的理解。
关键词： 增加值出口排污强度 多区域投入产出分析 结构分解分析
Emissions Intensity of Value-added Exports
Abstract：Research Objectives： Measuring the emissions intensity of valueadded exports of China and examining its dynamics and determinants during 1995—2009. Research Methods： Constructing emissions intensities of valueadded exports for 8 types of air pollutants based on a multiregional input-output model and exploring their determinants of changes using structural decomposition analysis. Research Findings： China’s emissions intensities of value-added exports declined significantly during study period，but were still much greater than those of major developed countries. The decrease of China’s emissions intensities of valueadded exports was mainly due to the decrease of direct emissions intensities of production，whereas changes of input structure after 2000 drove up the emissions intensities. These two factors also shaped the gap in emissions intensities of valueadded exports between China and key developed economies. Research Innovations：Examining environmental cost of export production in China and its determinants by evaluating emissions intensities of value-added exports for 8 types of air pollutants. Research Value： Enhancing our understandings on environmental cost of export production in China and its determinants.
Key Words： Emissions Intensity of Value-added Exports； Multi-regional Input-Output Analysis； Structural Decomposition Analysis
尹斯斯 杨连星 孔令熠 高云舒[5]
《世界经济》2017年第10期
摘要：本文通过对异质性企业贸易理论的探讨，构建可变贸易成本与生产率联合异质性的一般均衡模型，解释异质性企业贸易理论的产品多样性、社会福利，以及企业选择的基础理论问题。研究发现：Melitz模型的参数限制区间在生产率无上界的帕累托分布下存在，在有上界的帕累托分布中消失；对社会福利的分解证明了自由贸易度提高会降低总的开放经济产品多样性。存在异质性可变贸易成本拓展模型，证明了市场分割未必会阻碍社会福利的增长。此外，可变贸易成本的提高会显著提升企业出口概率，从而社会福利的增长机制会出现与Melitz模型不一致的情况。
关键词：异质性企业贸易理论 社会福利 可变贸易成本
Does Heterogeneous Firm Theory Follow Lucas Critique?
Abstract： In this paper，we discuss the heterogeneous firm theory and construct a general equilibrium model including variable trade cost and diversified productivity rate to explain fundamental problems of product diversity，social welfare and firm selection in heterogeneous emprise theory.Our research demonstrates that parameters’ interval in Melitz model exists in Pareto distributions without an upper bound，and disappears in Pareto distributions with an upper bound. The decomposition of social welfare indicates that an increase in the level of trade freedom，which can raise average productivity，will reduce the product diversity in an open economy，implying that the social welfare may go to the opposite direction when the variable trade costs are lowered to a certain degree.Firms’ selection effect depends on two conditions—one is that critical export productivity is strictly larger than domestic critical productivity，and the other one is that manufacturing—and export-related variables are homogenous. Market segmentation is not necessarily an impediment to the social welfare growth，thanks to the existence of the extension model of heterogeneous variable trade costs. The empirical study shows that variable trade costs will significantly raise a firm’s export probability，and therefore the mechanism of social welfare’s growth may be inconsistent with Melitz’s model.
Key Words：Heterogeneous Firm Theory； Social Welfare； Variable Trade Cost
异质性企业、出口强度与技术升级
岳文 韩剑[6]
《世界经济》2017年第10期
摘要：本文在新新贸易理论框架下，通过引入连续的内生企业技术升级，构建了一个同时包含企业异质性、出口强度和技术升级的理论模型，刻画了出口强度影响企业技术升级的作用机理。利用中国企业层面的微观数据，通过系统广义矩估计方法，本文还考察了出口强度对中国企业技术升级的影响。结果发现，出口强度对中国企业技术升级的影响呈“倒U形”，并且其对不同地区、不同所有制类型企业技术升级的影响并不一样。本文研究表明：企业的出口强度并不是越高越好，当企业的出口强度超过一定的临界值后，出口强度的进一步增加反而不利于企业的技术升级。
关键词：出口强度 技术升级 企业异质性
Heterogeneous Firms，Export Intensity and Technology Upgrading
Abstract： Under the framework of New-New Trade Theory，this paper builds a theoretical model which contains firm heterogeneity，export intensity and technology upgrading through introducing the continuous endogenous enterprise technology upgrading . We also investigates the mechanism of how export intensity affects enterprise technology upgrading. Based on China’s firm-level data and using the system GMM estimation method，the paper analyzes the effect of export intensity on enterprise technology upgrading，which is shown by empirical results to be not monotonic，but of an“inverted U-shape”. Further analysis demonstrates heterogeneous effects of export intensity on enterprise technology upgrading among different areas and different types of ownership.The paper realizes that export intensity does not simply follow the rule“the higher the better”.In fact，when export intensity exceeds a certain critical value，further increase of export intensity is harmful to enterprise technology upgrading. Therefore，from the view of enterprise technology upgrading，this paper provides a new perspective for understanding export intensity.
Key Words： Export Intensity； Technology Upgrading； Firm Heterogeneity
全球价值链中产业“微笑曲线”存在吗?——基于增加值平均传递步长方法
倪红福[7]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2016年第11期
摘要：本文在全球投入产出模型框架中首次提出测度产业部门位置的“广义增加值平均传递步长”新方法，并从强度和长度两个维度，全方位分析境外增加值贡献率—位置的关系，进而考察产业部门层面的“微笑曲线”是否存在。研究表明：本文的新方法提供了测度全球价值链位置的统一逻辑框架，几乎囊括了所有的其他位置测度方法。产业部门层面的“微笑曲线”不具有普遍意义，比如，中国电子和光学仪器制造业略呈“微笑曲线”形状且逐步加深化，而中国纺织业却不存在。
关键词：生产网络体系 全球价值链 全球投入产出表增加值平均传递步长
Is There Smile Curves of Industry in Global Value Chains
Abstract：Based on the global input-output model，this paper firstly proposes a generalized framework for measuring industry position by method of general“average propagation lengths”. From the perspective of participating strength and length of global value chains，this paper fully analyzes the relationship between valueadded contribution rate of foreign industry to a domestic industry and the position，and tries to testify if there exists a smile curves. The results show that the new method of defining the concept of general values-added average propagation lengths provides a unified framework to measure the position of global value chain in the literature. The industry level “smile curve” does not have the universal significance.The electronic and optical instrument manufacturing industry of China is slightly a “smile curve” shape，but the smile curve of China textile industry does not exist.
Key Words： Global Production Network； Global Value Chains； Global Input-Output Table； Value-added Average Propagation Lengths
全球化背景下国际不平等交融理论与实证研究——来自中国贸易利益不平等的证据
马艳 王宝珠 赵治成 李俊[8]
《财经研究》 2017年第3期
摘要：在经济全球化程度不断加深和国际分工形态不断变化的背景下，国际不平等问题的内在机理发生了新的变化，马克思主义的经典不平等理论也因此面临新的挑战。基于此，文章从国际分工新形态出发，将国际贸易、国际投资和国际金融三大领域中的不平等性放到“交融”的统一框架下进行考察，分析国际不平等问题如何由单一领域的不平等转变为多领域相互交融的不平等，提出国际不平等交融的概念，并进一步构建国际贸易利益不平等交融的数理模型。理论模型表明，一种国际经济领域中的不平等都融合着其他国际形式的不平等，在量上体现为某一种国际经济领域中的国际剩余价值转移量因其他国际经济活动的交融而增加或减少。基于上述理论分析，文章以我国贸易不平等为例，探究了三大国际经济领域中的不平等交融问题。研究表明：（1）国际投资不平等和实际有效汇率相对差异对国际贸易不平等有显著的正向影响；（2）国际贸易、国际投资与国际金融领域中的不平等存在长期双向因果关系，即三者的确存在交融影响。因此，政府应将不同国际经济领域的情况综合在同一平台上进行审视，为减少某一领域中的国际不平等也须辅之以其他两个领域的政策制定，从而达到事半功倍的效果。
关键词：国际分工新形态 国际不平等 交融 国际剩余价值转移
Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Integration of International Inequality under the Background of Globalization： Evidence from Trade Benefit Inequalities in China
Abstract： Under the background of deepening economic globalization and constant changes in international division of labor，internal mechanism of international inequality issue has new changes and Marx’s classical inequality theory is facing a novel challenge. Based on the new form of international division of labor，this paper puts the inequality in three fields of international trade，international investment and international finance into a unified “integration”framework，analyzes how international inequality transforms from inequality in a single field to integrated inequality in many fields，proposes the concept of international inequality integration，and further constructs a mathematical model of international trade interests inequality integration. Theoretical model shows that the inequality in an international economic field is integrated with inequality in other international forms，and is embodied in the increase or reduction in the transfer of international surplus value in an international economic field owing to the integration of other international economic activities in terms of quantity.Based on theoretical analysis above，this paper takes the international trade inequality as an example，and explores the problem of inequality integration in the three international economic fields. It comes to the results as follows： firstly，international investment inequality and relative differences in real effective exchange rates have a significant positive impact on international trade inequality；secondly，there does exist long-term bidirectional causality in inequality between international trade，international investment and international finance，namely there is an integration among these three. Therefore，the governments should examine different international economic fields on the same platform and reduce international inequality in a field accompanied by policy formulation in other two relative fields，to achieve a multiplier effect.
Key Words： New Form of International Division of Labor； International Inequality； Integration； International Surplus Value Transformation
贸易自由化与中国企业进口中间品质量升级
施炳展 张雅睿[9]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2016年第9期
摘要：进口高质量中间品是发展中国家实现技术追赶的重要途径；贸易自由化会降低进口高质量中间产品的贸易成本和相对价格，促进企业进口中间品质量升级。基于此，本文利用细分关税数据、海关数据和工业企业数据，将加工贸易作为控制组、一般贸易作为处理组，采用倍差法经验分析贸易自由化对中国企业进口中间品质量的影响。结论发现：伴随关税下降，中国企业进口中间品质量整体增长，且一般贸易组增长速度远快于加工贸易组。同加工贸易相比，关税下降1%，一般贸易进口中间品质量增长高出0.06%～3.74%。这一作用在持续进口企业中，在基础设施完善、市场化水平高、经济集聚程度高的地区更明显。上述结论通过了同趋势假设、内生性等一系列稳健性检验。
关键词：贸易自由化 进口 中间品 质量；
Trade Liberalization and Quality Upgrading of Chinese Firms’Imported Intermediate Products
Abstract： Upgrading of intermediate inputs an efficient method for developing countries to technology catching up. Trade liberalization will decrease the trade cost of intermediate products importing，which will lower the relative price of intermediate imports and increase the import of intermediate products of high quality. Based on the above perspective，we testify the effects of trade liberalization on importing quality using Chinese data with difference-in-difference method. We arrive at the following conclusions. With the decrease of Chinese imports tariff，the quality of Chinese importing intermediate products show an increasing trend. Compared with the processing trade，the normal trade shows a faster growth rate； the growth of aggregate quality is mainly driven by the withinfirm quality upgrading of the continue firms. Trade liberalization increase the quality of intermediate imports，which is more significant in the provinces with better infrastructure，more competitive market and higher degree of economic agglomeration.
Key Words： Trade Liberalization； Imports； Intermediate Inputs； Quality
贸易成本、比较优势与出口结构——基于30个国家行业面板数据的经验研究
胡朝霞 潘夏梦[10]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2017年第11期
摘要：研究目标：总体贸易成本对一国出口贸易结构的影响。研究方法：测算30个样本国与其所有贸易伙伴国的双边贸易成本和各国的总体贸易成本，并利用行业层面数据构建计量模型，将贸易成本与劳动力和资本等要素禀赋一起，经验地研究总体贸易成本对一国出口结构的影响。研究发现：总体贸易成本可以和资本与劳动力等要素禀赋一样，成为比较优势的来源，影响一国对外出口行业的选择；一国即便不具有资本禀赋的优势，但只要不断降低总体贸易成本，完全可能选择生产并出口高贸易成本密集度和资本密集型行业的商品。研究创新：从比较优势的角度经验研究了总体贸易成本对出口结构的影响。研究价值：为产业结构升级提供了新思路。
关键词：贸易成本 比较优势 出口行业结构 贸易成本密集度
Trade Costs，Comparative Advantage and Export Composition
Abstract： Research Objectives： Exploring the impact of national trade costs on export composition. Research Methods： Measuring trade costs to a large sample of 30 countries，exploring empirically whether countries trade costs act like other traditional endowments by affecting the composition of exports. Research Findings：National trade costs are important determinants of export composition and can be viewed as a source of comparative advantage. Low trade costs countries have a comparative advantage in exporting goods which are in the industries with higher industrial trade cost intensity. Research Innovations： Concerning the impact of trade costs on export from the angle of comparative advantage. Research Value：Providing new way for upgrading and optimization of industrial structure.
Key Words： Trade Costs； Comparative Advantage； Export Composition；Trade Cost Intensity
净出口的非线性增长贡献——基于1995—2011年中国省级面板数据的实证考察
谷克鉴 陈福中[11]
《经济研究》2016年第11期
摘要：计量经济学有关净出口同经济增长相关关系性质的已有研究，本质上是从国民收入核算语境中需求一侧展开的且被定义为经典的线性关系。本文尝试从供给侧纳入贸易要素进而实现增长核算模型的拓展，并根据数学理论和方式构建GDP同净出口依存度之间非线性关系的多层次识别准则。基于所构建的理论模型，本文采用1995—2011年中国省级面板数据，运用时空相关面板数据模型，实证检验了净出口与经济增长的非线性关系及其区域异质性表现；依据其非线性关系的数学性质，讨论了净出口作用于经济增长速度的临界转变点和推动实际经济增长的闭区间形式，结果还发现经济开放度决定净出口作用于经济增长作用区间的地区差异，同时延展净出口推动经济增长的历史轨迹。其政策含义是，相对地扩大进口不仅可以推动对外贸易趋向平衡，而且还将有助于经济增长。
关键词：净出口 增长核算 开放经济 计量经济学
Nonlinear Contributions of Net Export to Growth： Evidence from China
Abstract： From the demand side of national income accounting，proceeding literatures have always assured the econometrical nexus with nonlinearity between net export and economic growth. In this paper，by incorporating trade related factors into the extended economic growth accounting model，we theoretically offer multilevel criteria for the identification of the nexus with nonlinearity between net export and GDP. Based on our developed theoretical model and estimations
究——以20国集团为参照系的政策设计”（09&ZD033）的资助；
【作者简介】谷克鉴：中国人民大学商学院； 陈福中：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院。with serial and cross-sectional correlation panel data，we investigate the nexus with nonlinearity and regional heterogeneity between net export and economic growth by using the provincial panel data from 1995 through 2011. According to the mathematical specifications of nonlinearity，the critical point of transition in which net export on economic growth is positioned，meanwhile closed intervals of net export to promote economic growth is calibrated as well. As a result，the scale of economic openness determines the regional differentials from net export on economic growth intervals. The historical path of net export driving economic growth has been also revealed. The policy implication is that increase in import will not only bolster balanced international trade but also boost economic growth.
Key Words： Net Export； Growth Accounting； Open Economy； Econometrics
垂直专业化与危机中的贸易下滑
倪红福 夏杰长[12]
《世界经济》2016年第4期
摘要：本文通过全球投入产出模型研究发现：若全球生产网络体系正常运转，垂直关联并没有放大外生最终需求冲击对全球贸易下滑的影响，反而在一定程度上缓解了全球贸易下滑。中间产品贸易的下降幅度远低于最终需求产品贸易，但因权重为2/3，其贡献率较大（49%以上）；非垂直专业化值与垂直专业化值的下降幅度基本一致，因后者权重较小，其对全球贸易的贡献率低于28%。进一步比较真实统计数据计算结果表明：一旦供给侧遭到外生冲击，全球生产网络体系遭到破坏，垂直关联中断，将导致中间产品贸易和垂直专业化贸易大幅下降，进而造成全球贸易大幅下滑。
关键词：中间产品贸易 垂直专业化 全球投入产出模型 增加值贸易
Vertical Specialization and the Trade Collapse in the Global Recession
Abstract： A common but controversial view： vertical linkages （especially international vertical specialization） have exacerbated the global trade decline.This paper uses a global input-output framework to simulate the impacts of vertical linkages. It shows that，if the global production network operates normally，then the vertical linkages do not aggravate，and sometimes even alleviate to certain extent，the fall of the global trade. The decline of the trade of intermediate products is far less than the decline of the final products. However，since the trade of the intermediate products consists of two thirds of the total trade，it explains as large as 49% of the global trade decline. The decline of non-vertical specialization and vertical specialization are almost the same. Due to the smaller weight of the latter，the decline of vertical specialization explains less than 28% of the global trade decline. After comparing with the estimation results of real data，this paper shows that： once the supply side suffered exogenous shock，and the global production network，as well as，vertical linkages was destroyed，the trade of intermediate products and vertical specialization would decline sharply，triggering the global trade to collapse.
Key Words： Intermediate Product Trade；Vertical Specialization；Global Input-Output Model；Value-added Trade
出口与企业生产率关系的新检验：中国经验
张杰 张帆 陈志远[13]
《世界经济》2016年第6期
摘要：本文在着重考虑企业全要素生产率测算方法、进口、直接与间接出口，以及出口贸易方式等因素的基础上，在统一的理论框架内，利用改进的倾向得分匹配方法，系统地检验了出口与生产率的关系。研究发现：首先，中国企业在出口活动中既不存在明显的“自我选择效应”，也不存在显著的“出口学习效应”。其次，间接出口企业或从事加工贸易企业的出口活动不存在显著的“自我选择效应”与“出口学习效应”；直接出口企业或从事混合贸易企业的出口活动存在显著的“自我选择效应”，但这两种类型企业的出口活动只存在相对微弱的“出口学习效应”；只有从事一般贸易的企业，其出口活动存在显著的“自我选择效应”和“出口学习效应”。
关键词：出口 企业生产率 自我选择效应 出口学习效应 加工贸易
A Re-examination of the Relationship between Export and Productivity： New Micro Evidence from China
Abstract： After reconsidering the TFP measuring methods，firms’ imports status，firms’ direct and indirect export，and heterogeneous export patterns，which have been neglected by previous studies，this paper systematically reexamines the relation between export and productivity within a unified theoretical framework. We adopt the augmented Propensity Score Matching and Difference in Difference （PSM-DID） method. Our empirical results show that，first，Chinese firms’ exporting activities exhibit neither self-selection effect nor learning-by-doing effect. Second，firms in the indirect export industry or processing trade industries do not display remarkable self-selection effect and learning-by-doing effect，while firms in direct trade industry or mixed trade industry display significantly self-selection effect and relatively weak learning-by-doing effect. Only firms in general trade industry show both self-selection effect and learning-by-doing effect significantly.
Key Words： Export； Firm Productivity； Self-selection Effect； Learning-bydoing Effect； Indirect Export； Processing Trade
不完全契约与国际贸易：一个评述
刘文革 周方召 肖园园[14]
《经济研究》2016年第11期
摘要：不完全契约与国际贸易理论的交叉已成为国际贸易前沿研究课题。在制度经济学研究领域，随着对交易成本、产权问题的研究深入，逐步发展了不完全契约理论。契约的不完全性导致专用性投资在事前无法写入契约，事后收益的分配只能通过“再谈判”的方式进行，而这种再谈判因资产专用性而具有双边锁定效应，此外不完全契约也影响契约的执行，进而影响制度质量。不完全契约的这些特性对国际贸易和国际投资产生影响。本文对近年来发展起来的不完全契约对比较优势形成和贸易量影响的理论进行梳理，阐述契约质量在形成一国比较优势和出口差异化产品方面的理论与经验研究的进展；梳理不完全契约决定企业边界的理论，就不完全契约对跨国公司选择垂直整合还是外包的决定因素等前沿理论进行归纳和评述，并且对有关中国问题的研究贡献进行述评。基于对主要文献的梳理和分析，初步探讨了此领域未来可能的研究方向，为中国转型加新兴经济体的相关研究提供启发和参考。
关键词：不完全契约 国际贸易 国际投资 企业边界
Incomplete Contract and International Trade： A Literature Review
Abstract： The research on the relationship between incomplete contract and international trade has become a momentous theoretical issue. In the institutional economics，as the research of transaction cost and property rights moves along，the theory of incomplete contract has developed. The incomplete contract leads to that： specific investment can’t be written in contract in advance，and the earnings distribution is only through “renegotiation”，and this renegotiation leads to bilateral lock. In addition，incomplete contract also influence the execution of the contract，then the quality of institution. These characteristics of incomplete contract impact on international trade and international investment. This paper analyses the theory that the incomplete contract influences comparative advantage and trade volume，and explains the development； we will estimate the theory that the incomplete contract is the determinant of Multinational Corporation’s choice，vertical integration or outsourcing.
Key Words： Incomplete Contract； International Trade； FDI； Enterprise Boundary
MEGA与全球供应链：变化、响应与反作用
王中美[15]
《世界经济研究》2017年第6期
摘要：全球供应链的发展在近二十年已经深度改变了世界经济格局，它对经济治理与国际规则都提出新的要求。目前，WTO等现有多边体制无法跟上这些新要求和新发展。只有一些谈判中的大型区域协定（MEGA）能够一定程度地响应和满足全球供应链的新需求。另一方面，这些MEGA也在试图重塑封闭的区域供应链和加强主导国家的控制，这在一定程度上与现有供应链集中与分散的趋势既存在重合也存在冲突。MEGA可能从战略控制、优惠排他、规则溢出三方面对全球供应链产生重大影响。
关键词：全球供应链 MEGA 国际贸易投资新规则 贸易治理
MEGA and Global Supply Chain： Change，Response and Reaction
Abstract ：The development of global supply chains （GSC） has transformed the world and imposed new requirements for economic governance and rules.Until now，only some mega-regional agreements in negotiation can response to and maybe keep pace with such new requirements. However，they also would like to reshape closed regional supply chains which might reverse or collide with the current trends of GSC. MEGA would react on the GSC possibly through the intentionally strategic control，exclusion and containing，and rules spillover.
Key Words： Global Supply Chian； MEGA； International Trade and Investment Rules； Business Administration
以扩大开放提高我国服务业发展质量和国际竞争力
来有为 陈红娜[16]
《管理世界》 2017年第5期
摘要：本文在分析我国服务业总体发展特征的基础上，评估了我国服务业的国际竞争力、承诺开放度和真实开放度。研究发现，尽管近年来服务业对我国国民经济的带动和支撑作用明显增强，但我国服务业的发展水平仍相对较低，国际竞争力与发展规模不匹配。研究还发现，在所达成的优惠贸易安排，以及制定的贸易政策的友好度上，我国不仅远远低于发达国家水平，而且与发展中经济体相比也处于相对落后的状况，我国服务业的真实开放水平较低。扩大开放是提高我国服务业发展质量和国际竞争力的重要战略举措，建议“十三五”期间进一步扩大我国服务业对外开放范围，积极探索服务业对外开放的新领域和新举措。
Improve the Quality and International Competitiveness of China’s Service Sector by Expand Opening-up
Abstract： Based on the analysis of the overall development characteristics of China’s service industry，this paper evaluates the international competitiveness of China’s service industry，its commitment to openness and real openness. The study found that，although the role of services in the national economy in China enhanced obviously in recent years，the development level of service industry in our country is still relatively low，and its size does not match the international competitiveness and development. The study also found that the level of the real openness of our country services is low，not only far below the level of developed countries，but also behind the developing economy in a preferential trade agreement and friendly degrees on trade policy. Opening wider to the outside is to improve the quality of the service industry development of our country and international competitiveness of the important strategic moves，suggesting that during the period of “Thirteenthfive-year period ” to further expand the scope of service industry opening to the outside world，actively explore new areas and new measures.
Key Words：Service Industry； Expand Openness-up； Service Trade； Free Trade Agreement
服务贸易自由化是否影响中国制成品出口复杂度
戴翔[17]
《财贸研究》 2016年第3期
摘要：以1983—2012 年为样本期间，借鉴Hausmann 等的方法测算中国制成品出口技术复杂度，并以服务业FDI 产业渗透率和服务贸易进口渗透率作为服务贸易自由化替代变量，就服务贸易自由化对制成品出口技术复杂度影响效应进行计量检验。结果表明，在有效控制制造业FDI、融入产品内国际分工程度、基础设施、制造业行业研发投入、制造业行业人力资本；以及经济发展水平等变量后，服务贸易自由化发展对提升中国制成品出口技术复杂度具有显著积极影响。据此，在目前中国服务业发展相对滞后的大背景下，在服务贸易更加自由化已经成为新一代全球贸易规则演进的重要趋势下，应通过不断扩大服务业开放，推进服务贸易自由化改革，抓住全球服务贸易发展的重要契机，以“借力”外部优质资源，加快提升中国制成品出口技术复杂度，从而成功突围全球价值链锁定。
关键词：服务贸易 自由化 出口技术复杂度
Service Trade Liberalization and Improvement of Chinese Export Sophistication
Abstract： Drawing Haussmann et al method of calculation of technical complexity，and import penetration of trade in services and FDI in services industry penetration as the alternative variables of liberalization of trade in services，empirical analysis is carried out to test our expectation covering period from 1983 to 2012. Empirical results show that，after the effective control of manufacturing FDI，the degree of integration of the products in the international division of labor，infrastructure，manufacturing industry，R&D，manufacturing industry and the level of human capital variables such as economic development，liberalization of trade in services to enhance our system finished export of ’quality’has a significant positive impact.Accordingly，as the current development of China’s service sector is lagging behind in the background，the liberalization of trade in services has become an important trend in the evolution of a new generation of global trade rules，the services sector continues to expand by opening should promote liberalization of trade in services，to grasp important opportunity to live in a global service trade development，to ’leveraging’ external quality resources，to accelerate the upgrading of the quality level of manufactured exports，so as to break through the lock of the global value chain successfully.
Key Words： Service Trade； Liberalization； Export Sophistication
贸易技术结构变动对我国服务贸易出口的影响
王佃凯[18]
《世界经济》 2017年第7期
摘要：新世纪以来，我国服务贸易发展一方面是贸易竞争力在不断下降，另一方面服务贸易出口增速却超过了全球平均水平。为了找出我国服务贸易出口快速增长的原因，本文利用我国与21国双边的服务贸易数据，通过建立计量模型分析了服务贸易技术结构对我国服务出口规模的影响。实证结果表明，在控制了两国的GDP、人民币有效汇率、进口国市场开放程度等因素后，出口技术复杂度提高，以及我国出口结构与伙伴国的需求结构的差距缩小，可以解释我国服务贸易出口快速增长的现象。
关键词：贸易技术结构 技术复杂度 服务出口
The Influence of the Change of Trade Technology Structure on China’s Service Trade Export
Abstract： Since the beginning of the new century，China’s service trade has been declining in terms of trade competitiveness. On the other hand，the export growth of service trade has exceeded the global average. In order to find out the cause of the rapid growth of China’s service trade export，this paper used 21 bilateral service trade in China data and established the econometric model to analyse the technique of trade in services structure’s impact on China’s service export scale. The empirical results show that，when we control the factors of the GDP，the RMB effective exchange rate and the marketing openness of importing country，export technical complexity increasingly and the gap between China’s export structure and the demand structure of partner countries narrowly. This can explain the phenomenon of rapid growth of China’s services trade exports.
Key Words： Trade Technical Structure； Technical Complexity； Service Exports
金砖国家服务贸易国际竞争力研究—— 基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角
余道先 王露[19]
《世界经济研究》 2016年第8期
摘要：文章以金砖国家为研究对象，基于贸易增加值和全球价值链的视角，利用贸易增加值数据库，采用净出口显示性比较优势指数、全球价值链地位指数和参与度指数，测算金砖国家服务贸易相对竞争力和在全球生产价值链中的位置，对比分析金砖国家服务贸易的国际竞争力。研究结果表明： 金砖国家服务业总体处于较为明显的竞争劣势，但在服务业细分行业中具有一定比较优势； 金砖国家服务贸易处于全球价值链的下游，呈低附加值出口的特点； 金砖国家服务业的开放程度在加大。因此，金砖国家应发挥互补优势，大力发展服务业高附加值环节，提高在全球价值链中的地位。
关键词：金砖国家 贸易增加值 全球价值链 服务贸易
The Study on BRICS’ International Competitiveness in Service Trade：Based on Perspectives of Trade in Value Addedand Global Value Chain
Abstract： Based on perspectives of trade in value added and global value chain，this paper uses TIVA（Trade in Value Added） database to estimate the BRICS’ relative competitiveness and position of service trade in the global production value chain，by measuring NRCA index，GVC position and participation index. The conclusions show that： BRICS countries have a significant competitive disadvantage in overall service industry，while having a comparative advantage in certain sub-sectors of service industry. BRICS countries are in downstream in global value chain，with a characteristic of low value-added export.BRICS’ openness in service industry is increasing. Therefore，BRICS countries should play complementary advantages and vigorously develop high value-added service segments to improve its position in the global value chain.
Key Words： BRICS Countries； Trade in Value Added； Global Value Chain；Service Trade
《服务贸易协定》会否多边化？
周艳 李伍荣[20]
《国际经济评论》 2016年第3期
摘要：由“服务业挚友”集团发起的《服务贸易协定》（TISA） 谈判已历时四年有余，在制定“新的和强化的纪律”和做出“高雄心水平”的市场准入承诺方面取得了积极进展。对于协定以何种法律形式生效，官方文件《服务贸易协定谈判框架》认定是以诸边谈判为起点，争取将来条件具备时再实现多边化，继而成为GATS2.0。结合谈判进展来看，实现多边化已呈现出一些有利条件，如协定的框架内容较好地做到了与GATS 相适配，欧盟等谈判方的积极态度等；但也面临不少困难，如美国与金砖国家对待协定的诉求和利益存在明显错位等。跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP） 的达成将激励TISA 谈判方加快其进程，但预计多边化是一个反复博弈的动态过程，充满不确定性。中国应当积极主动作为，推动TISA 实现多边化。
关键词：《服务贸易协定》 《服务贸易总协定》 诸边谈判 多边化
Prospects of Multilateralized TISA
Abstract： The negotiations of the Trade in Service Agreement （TISA），which are initiated by the “Really Good Friends of Services （RGF）”，a sub-group of members of the World Trade Organization，have lasted more than four years and much headway has been made in the development of the new and enhanced discipline and the high level of ambition of market access commitments. Regarding in what legal form the agreement will come into effect，the official document，the Service Trade Agreement Negotiation Framework，says that it will be based on plurilateral negotiations before evolving into multilateral negotiations when time is ripe，ultimately becoming the GATS 2.0. Based on negotiation progress，there have been some favorable factors for achieving multilateralized negotiation，such as the good comparability between the framework of the TISA and the GATS and the positive attitudes of the EU and other parties.
Key Words： Trade in Service Agreement （TISA）； GATS； Plurilateral；Multilateralized
全球价值链视角下的中国服务贸易竞争力再评估
程大中 郑乐凯 魏如青[21]
《世界经济研究》 2017年第5期
摘要：文章基于贸易增加值前向分解法，并利用2016 年WIOD 最新公布的数据，测算了2000—2014 年中国整体及细分部门的服务贸易出口状况，在此基础上对中国服务贸易的国际竞争力进行重新评估。结果发现： （1）新算法实际测得中国服务出口占贸易总量35% 左右，可见服务贸易被严重低估，研究结果也一定程度上解释了服务经济在一国的产业结构和贸易结构存在地位的显著非对称性问题。（2）中国制造业服务化趋势越来越明显，中国服务贸易出口通过自身直接出口的比重从2000 年的32.16% 下降到2014 年的26.07%，呈现不断下降的趋势，而更多的服务价值是通过制成品出口而随之出口。（3）2014 年中国在全球服务贸易市场的占有率为12.71%，位居全球第二，但通过多项竞争力指标比较研究发现，无论是整体还是细分部门，中国服务贸易只是规模意义上的大国，而非服务贸易强国，国际竞争能力不强。
关键词：全球价值链 制造业服务化 服务贸易竞争力
Re-estimation of China’s Service Trade Competitiveness Based on the Global Value Chain Perspective
Abstract： Based on the latest published database of WIOD in 2016，this paper recalculated the export of service trade of China from 2000 to 2014 through the trade value-added forward decomposition method.On this basis，the international competitiveness of China’s service trade was reappraised.The results show that： （1）Chinese service exports accounted for about 35% of total exports according to new calculating method，so service trade was seriously underestimated.The results also explain to some extent the significant asymmetry in the country’s industrial structure and trade structure.（2） China’s manufacturing industries are becoming more and more service-oriented. The proportion of China’s service trade exports through its own direct exports fell from 32.16% in 2000 to 26.07% in 2014，and more service value is exported through the export of manufactured goods.（3） In 2014，China’s global service trade market share was 12.71%，ranking second in the world. But through a number of competitive indicators，we found that both the whole and subsectors of China’s service trade is only a large-scale power，rather than service trade power.The international competitiveness is not strong.
Key Words： Global Value Chain； Manufacturing Industries Service-oriented；Services Trade Competitiveness
自由贸易协定、制度环境与跨境贸易人民币结算
邓富华 霍伟东[22]
《中国工业经济》 2017年第5期
摘要：围绕中国实施自由贸易区战略背景下如何扩大跨境贸易人民币结算这一重要议题，本文采用2009—2014 年中国对178 个国家或地区的跨国面板数据，运用Heckman 两阶段选择模型和倾向得分匹配法克服样本选择性偏误，并划分货物贸易协定与服务贸易协定，区分自由贸易协定缔结对象的经济发展差异，以及考虑自由贸易协定与制度环境的交互特征，实证考察自由贸易协定对跨境贸易人民币结算的影响。研究发现，中国与贸易对象国或地区签署自由贸易协定会促进跨境货物贸易而非服务贸易的人民币结算；服务贸易协定有利于跨境货物贸易人民币结算，对跨境贸易人民币结算的促进效应强于货物贸易协定；“南北型”自由贸易协定对跨境贸易人民币结算的促进作用强于“南南型”；自由贸易协定有助于弥补中国制度缺失，促使中国与制度环境较好的国家或地区开展跨境贸易人民币结算业务。当前新形势下，中国应强化自由贸易区顶层运筹，注重自由贸易试验区的制度创新，加快推进服务贸易自由化与便利化，重视与发达国家或制度环境较好的国家缔结自由贸易协定，以发挥自由贸易协定对跨境贸易人民币结算的促进效应，夯实人民币国际化的基础。
关键词：自由贸易协定 跨境贸易 人民币结算 制度环境
Free Trade Agreement，Institutional Environment and RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement
Abstract： Under the background of China’s implementation of the strategy of establishing free trade areas，this paper focuses on the issue of how to expand renminbi（RMB） cross-border trade settlement. With cross-country panel data of 178 countries or areas from 2009 to 2014，we do an empirical research on the influence effects of the free trade agreement （FTA）on RMB cross-border trade settlement. In order to overcome the sample selection bias，we use the method of the Heckman two-stage selection model and propensity score matching. At the same time we distinguish the difference of economic development between those countries or areas which have signed the FTA with China，and divide the FTA into trade agreement in goods and trade agreement in services. What’s more，we have considered the interaction between the FTA and the institutional environment.The results show that China signing FTA with trading partners will promote RMB cross -border trade settlement in goods instead of services. The trade agreement in services is conducive to RMB cross-border trade settlement in goods；meanwhile，the promoting effect of trade agreement in services on RMB cross-border trade settlement is stronger than that in goods. Compared with the developing countries or areas，signing FTA with developed countries or areas strengthen the effect of the FTA on RMB cross-border trade settlement. Furthermore，signing FTA is helpful to make up the relatively poor institutional environment of China，and promote China to carry out the business of RMB cross -border trade settlement with countries or areas which institutional environment is better than China. Under current situations，China should reinforce the top-level designing and strategic planning for free trade areas，make use of the institutional innovation of free trade zones，accelerate the liberalization and facilitation of service trade，and pay more attention to sign the free trade agreements with developed countries，or countries with better institutional environment，so as to enhance the effect of the FTA on RMB cross-border trade settlement，which can lay a solid foundation for RMB internationalization.
Key Words： Free Trade Agreement （FTA）； Cross-border Trade； Renminbi（RMB） Settlement； Institutional Environment
汇率变动是否影响了服务出口复杂度——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析
戴翔 郑岚 张为付[23]
《南开经济研究》 2016年第6期
摘要：本文借鉴目前国内外学术界测度服务出口复杂度的最新方法，在测算了包括中国在内的60个国家服务出口复杂度基础之上，利用2000—2013年的跨国面板数据，在有效控制人力资本、服务贸易开放度等可能影响因素后，计量检验了实际有效汇率对服务出口复杂度的影响。结论表明，虽然基于总样本检验结果显示实际有效汇率上升在一定程度上对服务出口复杂度提升具有正向影响，但结合分样本检验结果来看，这种影响主要表现在发达经济体，即实际有效汇率上升对发达经济体服务出口复杂度的提升具有显著积极影响，而对发展中经济体并不具有显著影响。此外，本文研究还发现，人力资本、服务贸易开放度，以及利用外资等均对服务出口复杂度的提升具有推动作用。研究结论对于亟待大力发展服务贸易并实现“量质齐升”的中国而言，面临人民币升值的总体趋势，如何依托适当而稳健的汇率政策，以助推上述目标实现，有着极为重要的实践意义和政策意涵。
关键词：实际有效汇率 服务贸易 出口复杂度
Has Exchange Rate Volatility Affected Service Export Sophistication?—An Empirical Analysis Based on Transnational Panel Data
Abstract： By using the popular method measuring service export sophistication，this paper calculates service export sophistication of 60 countries including China. Based on which，this paper examine the relationship between real effective exchange rate and service export sophistication by utilizing cross countries panel data covering period from 2000 to 2013. Although full sample regression shows that the two variables have significant positive relationship，subsample regression indicates this positive relationship mainly lies in developed economies，not in developing economies. Besides，result also shows that human capital，service trade open and FDI all have positive impact on service export sophistication. Under background that China pushes development service trade urgently to realize the expansion of service export as well as the increase of service export sophistication，the above conclusion has important policy implications.
Key Words： REER； Trade in Service； Export Sophistication
吕延方 宇超逸 王冬[24]
《财贸经济》 2017年第4期
摘要：服务贸易的就业效应可能存在基于不同条件的非线性异质特征。鉴于此，本文利用2004—2013年我国服务业细分行业数据，运用非线性面板门限计量方法，侧重从行业产出和技术效率两个视角验证服务贸易对就业的非线性效应。结果表明：服务出口对就业存在基于行业产出的促进作用，而服务进口对就业存在基于技术效率的抑制作用，当门限变量超过门限值时，作用会更明显；另外，服务进口对就业存在基于技术效率与行业产出交叉项的门限特征，门限变量低于门限值时为抑制作用，超过则转为促进作用。因此，应认识到，处于不同经济变量结构点下的服务贸易对就业影响存在差异特征。长期来看，无论服务出口还是进口，对于促进国内服务业技术发展和劳动就业增长都具有重大意义。
关键词：服务贸易 就业效应 面板门限模型 行业产出 技术效率
How does Service Trade Affect Employment： The Dual Perspective of Output and Efficiency
Abstract： The employment effect of service trade may have nonlinear heterogeneous characteristics under different conditions. Based on panel data of Chinese service industries from 2004 to 2013，this paper constructs the nonlinear panel threshold model，and focuses on the nonlinear effect of service trade on employment from perspectives of industry output and technology efficiency.The results show that the service export has the promotion effect on employment based on industry output，and the service import has the inhibition effect based on technical efficiency，with more obvious effect when variable exceeding the threshold value. In addition，the service import has the threshold characteristics based on cross term of technical efficiency and industrial output. On the one hand，it should be recognized that the effect of service trade on employment has heterogeneous characteristics under different economic variables. On the other hand，from long-term perspective both of the service exports and imports are of great significance to promote technology and labor employment in domestic service industries.
Key Words： Trade in Services； Employment Effect； Threshold Panel Data Model； Industry Output； Technical Efficiency
产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应——“中国—东道国”视角的理论与实证
顾雪松 韩立岩 周伊敏[25]
《经济研究》2016年第4期
摘要：本文的主要贡献是揭示了母国与东道国的产业结构差异如何影响对外直接投资（ ODI） 对出口的作用，并从“中国—东道国”视角给出经验证据。在 理 论 层 面： 基于 ODI 的四种基本类型，得到了 ODI 对出口产生替代效应或创造效应的条件； 并分别从产业结构高级化和低级化两个方向出发，论证了无论哪种类型的 ODI，随着母国与东道国之间产业结构差异的扩大，ODI对母国的出口创造效应增强。在实证层面： 通过 108 个东道国 2003—2011 年的面板数据，发现中国对东道国的 ODI 对出口具有创造效应，产业结构差异对出口具有负向影响； 但是，随着产业结构差异程度的提高，ODI 的出口创造效应增强。宏观层面的经验证据支持了理论分析，而且实证结果对于样本与变量的设置，以及计量方法的选择具有稳健性。
关键词： 对外直接投资 产业结构 出口效应 比较优势
Difference in Industrial Structure and Effect of ODI on Export：Theory and Evidence from the “China-host Country” Perspective
Abstract： The main contribution of this paper is to reveal how the difference in industrial structure between the home and the host country influences the effect of outward FDI （ ODI） on export，and provide empirical evidence from “Chinahost Country” perspective. Theoretically，we obtain the conditions of substitution or creation effect of ODI on export based on four ODI basic types. Further，from the two directions of industrial structure changing，we document that with the widening of difference in industrial structure between the home country and the host country，the creating effect of ODI on export increases，regardless of the ODI types. Empirically，we use 108 host countries’ panel data during 2003—2011 to find that China’s ODI demonstrates export-creating effect，while the difference in industrial structure has negative impact； and with the increasing of the degree of difference in industry structure，ODI’s creating effect on export increases. Our macro-level empirical evidence supports the theoretical analysis，and reflects robustness in different settings of samples，variables and econometric methods.
Key Words： Outward FDI； Industrial Structure； Export Effect； Comparative Advantage
对外直接投资如何影响了母国就业？——基于中国微观企业数据的研究
李磊 白道欢 冼国明[26]
《经济研究》2016年第8期
摘要：在中国对外直接投资规模迅猛增长的背景下，本文研究了中国企业对外直接投资对国内就业的影响。论文从理论上分析了不同投资动机的对外直接投资对母国就业的影响机制，然后利用微观企业层面数据，经验研究了中国企业对外直接投资对母公司就业人数的影响。结果表明，中国企业对外直接投资对国内就业产生了显著的正向促进作用，同时企业对外直接投资次数越多，对国内就业的促进也越明显，其促进效应并不受企业所有制类型、投资目的地收入水平的影响。不同投资动机类型对就业的影响存在一定差异：企业资源寻求型对外直接投资对母公司的就业效应受行业类别的影响，而水平型对外直接投资和垂直型对外直接投资对母公司的就业效应，受投资目的地国家收入水平、中间品进出口，以及最终品进出口的影响。
关键词： 对外直接投资 就业 投资动机 贸易
How Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Affect Home-country Employment： Based on China’s Micro-level Enterprises Database
Abstract： In the context of rapidly growing Chinese enterprises’OFDI，this paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the influence of OFDI to Chinese domestic employment. The theoretical models are built to analyze the influence mechanism by which OFDI impact domestic employment. The empirical results show that OFDI of Chinese enterprises has a significant and positive impact on domestic employment. Meanwhile，the more times enterprises invest，the more labors that the parent company will employ. The impact is robust to enterprises’ownership types and the income levels of investment destination. Different investment motivations have different impact on employment. The effect produced by enterprises’ resource-seeking OFDI to employment of its parent company is affected by industry classification，and the effect produced by enterprises’horizontal and vertical OFDI to its parent company’s employment is affected by income levels，import and export of intermediate product and final product.
Key Words： OFDI； Employment； Investment Motivations； Trade
企业异质性与中国服务业对外直接投资
李磊 蒋殿春 王小霞[27]
《世界经济》2017年第11期
摘要：本文构建了一个包含中国服务业企业对外直接投资（ OFDI） 信息的微观数据集，从企业异质性角度检验了中国服务业企业对外直接投资的决定因素。结果表明，企业生产率、人力资本、资本密集度和企业年龄与服务业企业“走出去”具有显著正向关系，这种正向关系不受变量选择和数据样本范围的影响。在 2008 年，中国服务业企业生产率每增加 1% ，其对外直接投资流量将增加约2.5% ，存量将增加约 2% 。人力资本是仅次于企业生产率的影响因素，其每增加1% ，服务业企业对外直接投资流量将增加 1. 1% ，存量将增加约 1. 4% 。此外，企业生产率及人力资本对服务业企业向中高收入地区 OFDI 的影响较大。同时，资本密集度对于制造业和服务业企业 OFDI 影响的差异凸显了服务业企业 OFDI 中“人”比“物”更重要的特征。
关键词：异质性 服务业 对外直接投资 生产率 人力资本
Firms Heterogeneity and OFDI in Service Industry of China
Abstract： Recently the outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） of China service industries has grown rapidly. This paper empirically investigates the impact of the heterogeneity of firms on the OFDI. Our estimation，based on large firmlevel datasets from China in 2008，suggests that productivities，human capitals，capital intensities and the ages of firms all have significant positive effects on the OFDI. Every 1% increase in productivity will lead to a 2.5% increase of the OFDI flow and a 2% increase of the OFDI stock. In addition，an 1% increase in human capital will increase the OFDI flow and the OFDI stock by 1.1% and 1.4%，respectively. Further analysis shows that such effect also depends on the income level of the country where the investment goes into. The impact in service industries differs from that in the manufacturing sectors. Finally，human capital plays a much more significant role than physical capital in influencing the OFDI.
Key Words： Heterogeneity； Service Industry； OFDI； Productivity； Human Capital
中国对外直接投资如何影响了企业加成率：事实与机制
毛其淋 许家云[28](www.xing528.com)
《世界经济》2016第6期
摘要：本文使用中国制造业企业的生产和贸易数据，深入考察了对外直接投资（ OFDI） 对企业加成率的微观影响和作用机制。研究发现，对外直接投资显著提高了企业加成率，其中投资高收入国家对企业加成率的提升作用要明显大于投资中低收入国家。此外，研发加工型和多样化型 OFDI 对企业加成率的影响程度相对较大。进一步对影响机制的检验表明，一方面，OFDI促进了企业进行新产品创新，降低了需求弹性，从而有利于企业制定更高的价格； 另一方面，OFDI 提高了企业的生产效率，从而可能降低企业的边际生产成本。
关键词：对外直接投资 加成率 倾向得分匹配 中介效应模型
How Outward Foreign Direct Investment Affects Chinese Manufacturing Firms’ Markups： Facts and Mechanisms
Abstract： By using the production and trade data about Chinese manufacturing firms，this paper for the first time investigates the micro effects and the mechanisms of outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） on firms’ markups，and the results are significantly positive. Focusing on investment destinations and business types，we find that OFDI in high-income countries exhibits greater effect on firms’markups than that in low-and middle-income countries，and that diverse OFDI in R&D processing has a more compelling effect. Further tests on mechanisms show that，on one hand，OFDI promotes firms’ innovation on new products，which can reduce the demand elasticity and then help firms set higher prices； on the other hand，OFDI enhances firms’ production efficiency，which tends to reduce the marginal costs.
Key Words： Outward Foreign Direct Investment； Markups； Propensity Score Matching； Mediating Effect Mode
破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜
杨娇辉 王伟 谭娜[29]
《世界经济》2016年第11期
摘要：针对当前中国 OFDI 的“制度风险偏好”问题，本文基于 2003—2014 年中国 OFDI 区位分布的流量数据，从国际资本流动的视角，使用面板分位数模型考察东道国制度风险与中国 OFDI 区位分布之间的关系。研究发现：中国OFDI 区位分布的所谓“制度风险偏好”并不是绝对的，当使用相对制度质量指标，并且控制东道国资本密集度与自然资源丰富程度的影响后，“制度风险偏好”消失，并呈现出与主流国际资本流动理论完全相符的风险规避特征。因此，“制度风险偏好”很大程度上是由于中国 OFDI 更多地流向经济发展水平较低、自然资源更为丰富的区域造成的。
关键词：对外直接投资 区位选择 相对制度质量 面板分位数
The Puzzle of Chinese OFDI’s Institutional Risk Preference in Location Choice：An Empirical Investigation
Abstract： By applying the quantile panel data model on the 2003—2014 data，this paper investigates the relationship between host country’s institutional risk and the location choice of China’s outward foreign direct investment （OFDI）from the perspective of international capital mobility. Our analysis shows that the so-called institutional risk preference pattern of China’s OFDI is contingent. This phenomenon tends to vanish and even exhibits a reversed pattern of risk aversion，which is in accordance with the mainstream international investment theory after applying the relative institution quality and controlling for the impacts of host country’s capital intensity and natural resource abundance. Therefore，it is natural to conclude that the so-called institutional risk preference is actually attributed to the fact that China’s OFDI heavily flows into areas with lower economic development and with more abundant natural resources. Furthermore，the higher the percentile of the China’s OFDI is，the smaller the influence of the host country’s institution quality becomes. That is，the small magnitude of China’s OFDI inflow is mainly due to the relatively weak institution quality of the host country. A high institution quality，however，has limited influence on advancing the massive flow of China’s OFDI into host country. The results hold in a series of robust tests.
Key Words： OFDI； Location Choice； Relative Institution Quality； Quantile Panel Data Model
共建“一带一路”：基于关系治理与规则治理的分析框架
陈伟光 王燕[30]
《世界经济与政治》2016年第6期
摘要：伴随着“一带一路”建设的推进，风险分担、利益协调和规则标准的对接等各类问题应运而生，客观上需要治理框架的构建。作者从治理主体、治理对象、治理机制、治理目标等要素构建其治理的总体框架，并鉴于“一带一路”的中国元素和治理特征，在中国传统周边治理模式中，发展出兼收并蓄东方传统关系治理与西方规则治理的“一带一路”治理新模式。“关系”有利于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家形成共识、塑造命运共同体的认知基础，“规则”则为“一带一路”基础设施建设、贸易与投资的便利化等提供制度依据，关系治理与规则治理在"一带一路"建设中可针对不同成员方、不同阶段，以及不同议题发挥替代性和互补性功能，以增进“一带一路”建设及治理绩效。“一带一路”治理伴随“一带一路”整个战略实施的过程，在此过程中，参与方对战略实施进程中潜在风险和现实问题共同商讨、协调、管控和处理，其依据是通过制度规则和关系规范模式，引导和形成“一带一路”建设进程中的秩序，以保证“一带一路”中的“五通”实现，最终打造以命运共同体为目标的新型区域经济合作机制。
关键词： “一带一路” 全球治理模式 关系治理 规则治理
Co-constructing the “the Belt and Road”： An Analytical Framework on Relation-Based Governance and Rule-Based Governance
Abstract： The construction of the “The Belt and Road”calls for the establishment of the theocratic framework of governance to deal with the issues of risks allocation，benefits sharing and unification of rules and standards in the region. This article constructs the framework of governance of “The Belt and Road” on the elements of actors，subject matter，mechanisms，and objectives.Due to its uniqueness and Chinese elements embodied in the construction of “The Belt and Road”，the governance should be modeled on the collaboration of the oriental relation-based governance and western rule-based governance. “Relations”help the formation of the collective identity among China and the other Asian countries，while “rules” provide the institutions for the infrastructure construction，trade and investment facilitation. Therefore，to improve the effectiveness of the regional governance，the relation-based governance and rule-based governance would supplement and complement each other when targeting different countries on different issues in different stages of the construction. The article opines that the“The Belt and Road” governance is a brand new collaborative regional economic mechanism，by using relation-based governance and rule-based governance together，to fulfill the objective of forming the “Community with the same destiny” in the region via negotiations and management of the potential risks and actual problems incurred by the countries with the guidance of the “Five Links”policies.
Key Words： “The Belt and Road” Initiative； Modes of Global Governance；Relation- based Governance； Rule-based Governance
规则内化与规则外溢——中美参与全球治理的内在逻辑
徐秀军[31]
《世界经济与政治》2017年第9期
摘要：全球治理是一种以规则为基础的治理。在全球治理领域，国家之间的博弈日益表现为规则制定权的竞争。基于综合实力的不同，霸权国家与新兴大国参与全球治理的路径选择存在较大差异，也制约了实力变动后国家的全球治理政策的调整空间。由于实力的相对衰落，美国长期以来对全球治理的规则外溢型参与的难度日益加大。新的形势下，美国需要调整其参与全球治理的内顾倾向，回归平等协作的全球治理的基本要求。但由于美国政府所进行的一系列政策调整并未改变规则外溢型参与的路径，美国在相当长的时期仍将延续在全球治理问题上的逆势行动。随着中国实力的崛起，单纯通过规则内化参与全球治理的约束作用日益凸显，推动全球治理规则体系改革和引领新规则建立便成为自然而然的追求。这一过程也将十分漫长，它不仅取决于自身实力的持续提升，还要受到既有规则巨大惯性的阻碍。这意味着以美国为代表的发达国家与以中国为代表的新兴市场与发展中国家在全球治理规则上的“制定—接受”关系开始发生转变，全球治理将由此进入新一轮的激烈竞争与博弈。
关键词： 规则内化 规则外溢 全球化 全球治理 规则治理
Rule Internalization and Rule Externalization： The Internal Logic of China and US Participation in Global Governance
Abstract： In essence，global governance is a rule-based governance. In the field of global governance，the game between countries is increasingly manifested as competition for the power to formulate rules. Due to differentiated comprehensive strengths，hegemonic countries and emerging countries select different ways to participate in global governance，which restricts the adjustment space of their policies towards global governance after their strength has changed.As the relative decline in strength，the United States has been facing increasing difficulties in participating in global governance through its long upheld rule externalization. Under the new situations，the United States needs to adjust its inward participation in global governance to meet the basic requirements of global governance for equal cooperation. Because a series of policy adjustments that the US government has carried out did not change its rule externalization participation，it will be a long period for United States to continue its action defying the global trend in the global governance. With the rise of China’s strength，the rule constraints of China’s participation in global governance simply through rule internalization have been increasingly prominent，and China has naturally pursued to reform the global governance system and led the new international rules. This process will be very long for China because it not only depends on the continuous rise of its own strength，but also is hindered by the huge inertia of the established rules. This means that the “formulation-acceptance” relationship between the developed countries represented by the United States and the emerging markets and developing countries represented by China in the global governance rules began to change，and global governance will thus enter a new round of fierce competition and game.
Key Words： Rule Internalization； Rule Externalization； Globalization； Global Governance； Rule-based Governance
“一带一路”倡议的理论创新与典范价值
王亚军[32]
《世界经济与政治》2017年第3期
摘要：作为典型的国际公共产品，中国提出的“一带一路”倡议具有非竞争性和非排他性的公共产品基本特征，同时从设计理念到操作框架、从愿景到行动，都体现出鲜明的中国特色、中国风格和中国气派。理论上，“一带一路”倡议推动了全球治理理论的多重创新，丰富和发展了国际合作理论和全球价值链理论，“丝路精神”是对新中国外交核心价值理念的继承创新，共商共建共享原则更是对全球治理理论的重要贡献。实践上，“一带一路”倡议兼具区域合作、国际协议等特点，开创了中国外交的新实践和国际合作的新模式，具有发展、和平、文化、合作等方面的典范价值，为新时期国际关系提供了新的解决方案。 三年有成。“一带一路” 建设正处于量变到质变、小成至大成的关键时期，下一步要积极推进两大主轴建设，与中国特色大国外交理论体系进一步对接，创新“一带一路”理论体系，打造“一带一路”安全系统工程。“大事小以仁，小事大以智”，中国应在大国外交框架下，稳妥处理与沿线国家的竞合关系，深入推进机制建设。
关键词： “一带一路” 国际公共产品 合作共赢 理论创新 全球治理
The Theoretical Innovation and Paragon Value of “the Belt and Road”Initiative as an International Public Good
Abstract： As a typical international public good，“the Belt and Road（B&R）”Initiative China proposed has the basic characteristics of public goods，i.e.，non-competitive and non-exclusive. From the design concept to operational framework，and from vision to action，the B&R embodies the unique Chinese characteristics，China Style and Chinese Manner. In theory，the B&R Initiative has promoted the multiple innovation of global governance theory，and developed the international cooperation theory and the global value chain theory. The Silk Road Spirit is the inheritance and innovation of the core values of China’s diplomacy.The principle of achieving shared growth through discussion and collaboration is an important contribution to the global governance theory. In practice，the B&R has the characteristics of regional cooperation and international agreement，which has created a new practice of China’s foreign affairs，and has the paragon value in the aspects of development，peace，culture and cooperation. After three years，the B&R construction has made great achievements. The B&R is in the critical period of turning quantitative change into qualitative change，and making a small success to a major success. The main contents of the next step are to actively promote the construction of the two major spheres，to innovate the theoretical system of B&R，to create a multi-dimensional security platform system，to take active and steady steps to deal with the competing and cooperating relations with the countries along the B&R in the framework of great power’s diplomatic strategy，and to promote the mechanism construction in depth.
Key Words： the Belt and Road Initiative； International Public Goods；Cooperation and Common Interests； Theoretical Innovation； Paragon Value
“一带一路”倡议的理论基础探析——基于世界市场失灵的视角
郑伟 桑百川[33]
《东北亚论坛》2017年第2期
摘要：中国提出的“一带一路”倡议，已经成为我国深化对外开放、参与国际经济合作和全球经济治理的重要抓手，得到了世界众多国家的响应。但世界上也存在一些不解、误解，如“一带一路”倡议是否排斥其他的区域经济合作机制，“一带一路”倡议是否是“新马歇尔计划”，是否为了中国向世界转移过剩产能。到底如何看待并有效对接“一带一路”倡议，使“一带一路”倡议成为中国推动世界经济发展、各国分享中国经济发展成果的平台，离不开对“一带一路”倡议理论基础的探讨。马克思主义的世界市场失灵理论构成了“一带一路”倡议的理论基础。
关键词： “一带一路”倡议 理论基础 世界市场失灵全球经济治理 公共物品
Study on the Theoretical Basis of the Belt and Road Initiative——In the Perspective of the Market Failure Theory
Abstract： The Belt and Road Initiative，which has been an important label for China to deepen opening and participate international economic cooperation and global economic governance，has received extensive attention from all over the world. However，there are also misunderstandings. Does the Belt and Road Initiative exclude other regional economic cooperation mechanism? Is the Belt and Road Initiative the new Marshall Plan? Whether the purpose of the initiative is to export China’s excessive production capacity or not? Discussion on the theoretical basis of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great significance to evaluate the initiative and make the initiative a platform to push global economic growth and co-development. The Marxism market failure theory of world market has laid theoretical foundation for the Belt and Road Initiative.
Key Words： Belt and Road Initiative； Theoretical Basis； Market Failure of World Market； Global Economic Governance； Public Goods
“一带一路”：全球价值双环流研究
张辉 易天 唐毓璇[34]
《经济科学》2017年第3期
摘要：“一带一路”是我国现阶段最重要的对外开放战略，该倡议的提出不但顺应世界经济的发展，而且也是我国作为世界第二大经济体，履行大国责任的重要举措。“一带一路”是一个创新性的国际合作平台，具有很强的开放性，旨在为全球经济发展提供一个更加公平、包容的合作共赢体系。本文在全球价值双环流的框架下，从必然性、发展阶段、经济内涵等方面全面地分析了“一带一路”这一国际合作平台。研究结果表明：中国处于全球经济承上启下的位置，通过与发展中经济体、发达经济体的贸易分工，带动了更大区域的资源优化配置，为全球经济特别是发展中经济体的发展带来了新的动力。“一带一路”倡议的深化推进，将进一步强化这一作用，促进更深层次的国际经济合作与交往。
关键词： “一带一路”倡议 全球价值双环流 国际分工
The Belt and Road： The Study of Global Value Double Circulation
Abstract： The “The Belt and Road” is China’s most important opening-up strategy at the current stage. The proposal not only conforms to the development of the world economy，but also is an important measure for China’s responsibility as a world’s second-largest economy and the performance of major powers.“The Belt and Road” is an innovative international cooperation platform with a strong openness. It aims to provide a more fair and inclusive cooperation and win-win system for global economic development. Under the framework of the double loop of global value，this paper comprehensively analyzes the “Belt and Road” international cooperation platform from the perspectives of inevitability，development stage，and economic connotation. The results of the study show that China is in the position of the global economy and the development economy.The division of labor between the physical and advanced economies has led to the optimization of the allocation of resources in the larger regions，bringing new impetus to the development of the global economy，especially the developing economies. The deepening of the “Belt and Road Initiative” will further strengthen this role and promote deeper international economic cooperation and exchanges.
Key Words： Belt and Road Initiative； Global Value Double Circulation；Global Economic Governance； International Division of Labor
“一带一路”倡议与全球贸易治理机制变革
刘志中[35]
《东北亚论坛》2017年第6期
摘要：全球贸易治理机制为维护战后世界经济的稳定和各国的开放合作发挥了重要作用，但其自身也存在一些缺陷。多边贸易体制缺乏公正性，区域贸易协定不断涌现，导致全球贸易治理出现“碎片化”趋势，非正式制度安排缺乏法律的约束力，合法性也受到质疑。全球贸易治理机制的缺陷导致了诸多治理低效率问题，逆全球化浪潮就是贸易治理机制低效率的突出表现。此外，新兴经济体在国际经济格局中地位日益上升，现行的全球贸易治理机制所界定的利益分配格局越发不合时宜。而“一带一路”倡议的提出并付诸实施，将会引领全球贸易治理机制变革，促进全球贸易治理向公正导向、发展导向转型，将整合“碎片化”的全球贸易治理机制，引领新的经济全球化。“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛为全球贸易治理提供新的多边合作平台。“丝路新秩序”为全球贸易治理机制变革设定新范本。
关键词： “一带一路” 全球贸易治理 逆全球化 变革
The Belt and Road Initiative and Reform of Global Trade Governance Mechanism
Abstract： The global trade governance mechanism plays an important role in maintaining the stability of the world economy and the open cooperation of all countries after World War II，but it has some drawbacks. Multilateral trading system lacks impartiality，regional trade agreements leads to “fragmentation”of global trade governance and informal institutional arrangement which lacks legally binding and legitimacy is also questioned. The shortcomings of the global trade governance mechanism lead to many inefficient problems，and the antiglobalization wave is the typical example of the low efficiency. In addition，emerging economies have become increasingly important in the world economy，and the distribution of benefits defined by the existing mechanism of global trade governance is becoming increasingly inappropriate. However，the Belt and Road Initiative will lead to the reform of global trade governance mechanism，promote it turning to justice and development orientation，integrate fragmentation of global trade governance mechanism，and lead the new economic globalization. The Belt and Road Initiative summit provides new multilateral cooperation platform for global trade governance. Furthermore，“new silk road order” set a new model for the reform of global trade governance mechanism.
Key Words： Belt and Road Initiative； Global Trade Governance； Antiglobalization； Reform
中欧双边贸易的规模效应研究： 一个引力模型的扩展应用
丁剑平 刘敏[36]
《世界经济》2016年第6期
摘要：本文运用在贸易成本中加入规模效应的引力模型，通过基于HS分类的行业对中欧双边贸易进行研究发现，中国从欧盟的进口中，有67%的行业 （对应约80%进口量）呈现规模经济特征。整体上，在中国对欧盟的出口中，有33%的行业（对应约62%出口量）呈现规模经济特征，但总量上中国对欧盟的出口贸易已不具备规模经济特征。具体来看，在中国对外贸易中占据重要地位的机电设备具有较大的规模经济效应，表明在该行业中国对欧贸易仍然具有发展空间。此外，比较2008 年金融危机前后的中欧贸易发现，金融危机后中国出口的规模经济效应消失，而进口的规模经济效应保持不变。将美国、日本、巴西、印度、俄罗斯与欧盟的双边贸易进行回归和比较之后，美国、日本和俄罗斯对欧洲出口时，贸易成本具备规模经济特征，面临相对宽松的贸易条件。
关键词： 引力模型 规模效应 汇率传递 中欧贸易
A Study on the Scale Effect in Sino-European Bilateral Trade：An Application and Extension of the Gravity Model
Abstract： This paper uses the gravity model with scale effect upon trade costs and uses HS industriesclassification method in Sino-European bilateral trade. The analysis shows that among the imports from European Union to China，67% of China’s importing sectors exhibit economies of scale，accounting for 80% of the total import volume. Data estimation implies that the elasticity of substitution is 2，and a double of import from European Union would lower China’s trade costs by 33. 86%. On the export side，33% of the sectors-consisting of 62% of the exports to European Union-exhibit economies of scale. However，on aggregate level，goods exporting from China to European Union no longer indicates economies of scale. Specifically，export of mechanical and electrical equipment contributes a major percentage in China’s foreign trade and achieves relatively large economies of scale，which indicates that there is still room for development in this sector.Besides，a comparison of Sino-European Union trade pre-and post-financial crisis shows that economies of scale in China’s exports disappeared after the crisis，while in China’s imports it still remains. Finally，applying the same method to the imports to European Union from United States，Japan，Brazil，India，and Russia，we observe that economies of scale exists in the imports from the United States，Japan and Russia，where European Union faces a relatively favorable trade condition.
Key Words： Gravity Model；Scale Effect；Exchange Rate Transmission
直接影响与空间外溢：中国对非洲农业 贸易的多边阻力识别
谢杰 刘学智[37]
《财贸经济》2016年第1期
摘要：一个地区贸易壁垒的改变会影响其他地区的贸易量，这种解释变量空间相关构成“多边阻力项”的一部分，而引力方程中的解释变量空间相关项往往被忽略或回避。本文以这一理论基础与经验分析之间的不一致作为研究切入点，构建具有广义空间相关特征的多边引力模型，借助中非农业贸易所提供的天然实验场进行实证检验，科学地估算了双边直接影响与多边近邻的空间外溢的规模。旨在为贸易政策定向操作提供参考的影响效应分解表明：非洲部分国家落后的社会经济条件、腐败程度、民族紧张程度等负面因素会产生显著空间外溢效应，给中非农业贸易带来多边阻力影响；能源生产可能给近邻地区农业造成挤出效应；非洲国家间冲突也会引起消极的直接影响，并产生显著的空间外溢效应，阻碍中国与非洲各国的农业贸易发展。中国在通过投资或援助等手段推动中非农业贸易平稳发展的同时，也需要关注非洲各国的非农产业发展，以及和平、文化共识和高效政府等因素对中非农业贸易所引起的直接或间接效应。
关键词：空间外溢 多边阻力 中非农业贸易 广义空间多边引力模型
Direct Impacts and Spatial Spillovers： How Does the Multilateral Resistance Affect China-Africa Agricultural Trade
Abstract： Trade barriers change of one region will affect the trade volume of other regions. These spatial correlations caused by explanatory variables also constitute another part of “the multilateral resistances terms”，which tend to be ignored in traditional gravity equations. This paper takes this inconsistency between theoretical basis and empirical analysis as the breakthrough point of research. A multilateral gravity model is built，which has the feature of generalized spatial correlation. Then，frontier techniques of spatial econometrics are used to construct an empirical equation，and to conduct an empirical analysis，which scientifically estimate the magnitudes of bilateral direct influences and the magnitudes of spatial spillovers on multilateral neighbors. The decomposition of the effects which has the reference for the directional operations of trade policy shows that the negative factors that have significant spatial spillover effects would bring about multilateral resistances on China-Africa agricultural trade，which are caused by relative poor social economic conditions，corruption and ethnic conflicts in some of Africa countries. Energy productions may cause crowding-out effects on the agricultures of neighboring regions. In addition，the conflicts between African countries would hinder the development of agricultural trade between China and African countries，because the conflicts will exert negative direct impacts and spatial spillover effects.When China promotes China-Africa agricultural trade by means of investment or aid，China should pay close attention to some direct or indirect impacts on the stable development of the China-African agricultural trade，which are caused by the developments of non-agriculture trade，which are caused by the developments of non-agricultural industries，the peace，cultural consensus and efficient government.
Key Words： Direct Impacts； Spatial Spillovers； Multilateral Resistances；China-Africa Agricultural Trade； Generalized Spatial Multilateral Gravity Model
贸易伙伴对第三方发起反倾销 对中国出口三元边际的影响研究
黄新飞 李锐 黄文锋[38]
《国际贸易问题》2017年第1期
摘要：文章匹配了2000—2013年联合国贸易商品（UN Comtrade）数据库230万个HS-6位数商品数据，基于Hummels and Klenow（2005）的方法对中国出口贸易进行三元边际分解，从贸易伙伴国对第三方发起反倾销活动的视角，研究其对中国出口贸易三元边际的影响及机制。实证结果表明：第三方遭遇反倾销活动促进了中国出口贸易扩展边际的增长，抑制了中国出口贸易数量边际和价格边际的增长；反倾销活动对中国向非OECD国家出口扩展边际的促进作用更显著；采用不同反倾销变量进行检验表明，实证结果具有稳健性。
关键词： 出口贸易 三元边际 反倾销 贸易转移效应
Analysis of the Impacts of Trading Partners’Anti-Dumping Initiating on the Third Parties on Ternary Margins of China’s Export
Abstract： Referring to Hummels and Klenow’s （2005） decomposition method，we collect and complete match 2，300，000 HS6-digit commodity of international trade data from 2000 to 2013 in the United Nations Commodity Trade Database （UN Comtrade Database） to decompose China’s export to ternary margins. From the perspective of anti-dumping activities that China’s export trade partners initiate on the third party，this paper will study the effect and mechanism that the activities create on the Ternary Margins of China’s Export. Empirical results show that the anti-dumping activities suffered by the third party can promote extensive margin but restrict the quantity and price margin of Chinese exports.Besides，the promotion effect that anti- dumping activities pose on China’s export marginal expansion to non-OECD countries is more significant. This study Uses different anti-dumping variables to analysis and the empirical results are robust.
Key Words： Export； Ternary Margins； Anti-Dumping； Trade Diversion Effect
美国对华反倾销的动因——基于企业视角的经验研究
谢申祥 王俊力 高丽[39]
《财贸经济》2016年第8期
摘要：出口企业的特征会影响其遭遇反倾销诉讼吗？本文通过整理汇总中国工业企业数据库、全球反倾销数据库，以及中国海关数据库2000—2006年的数据，利用Logit和Probit模型，考察了中国出口企业频繁遭遇美国反倾销的原因。研究结果表明，在考察期内，企业的资本密集度越高，其遭受反倾销的可能性越大。国有企业和多产品企业更有可能遭遇反倾销。企业劳动生产率和企业规模均会显著影响其遭遇反倾销的概率。不过，企业劳动生产率和企业规模与企业遭受反倾销的概率之间并不表现为单调关系。具体来说，当企业规模较小时，企业劳动生产率越高，越容易遭受反倾销；而当企业劳动生产率较低时，随着企业规模扩大，其遭受反倾销的可能性也越高。此外，企业经营持续时间越长，其遭受反倾销的可能性越低，然而这一影响并不显著。本文的研究对于重新认识我国频繁遭遇反倾销的缘由，具有重要的现实意义。
关键词： 出口贸易 三元边际 反倾销 贸易转移效应
The Motives of the United State’s Anti-dumping Against China： the Evidence on Firms Level
Abstract： Do the characteristics of the export enterprise affect its antidumping investigation? In this paper，we investigate reasons that Chinese export enterprises database，Global anti-dumping database and China customs database from 2000 to 2006 and using Logit and Probit modes. The results show that the higher capital intensity the company owns，the more likely it is to suffer antidumping investigations. The state-owned enterprises and multi-product enterprises are more likely it is to suffer anti-dumping investigations. The labor productivity of enterprises and the firm scale significantly influence the probability for enterprises to be investigated. However，the relationship between labor productivity of enterprises，firm scale and the probability of enterprises suffered anti-dumping investigation is not monotonic. Specifically，when the firm scale is small，the higher labor productivity the enterprise has，the more probability of suffering antidumping the enterprise will have. When the labor productivity is in a low level，with the expansion of the scale of the enterprise，it is more likely to suffer antidumping investigations. In addition，the longer duration of business operation the enterprise has，the less probability of anti-dumping investigation the enterprises will suffer，but this effect is not significant. The paper is important to rethink why our country are frequently encountering anti-dumping investigations.
Key Words： Anti-dumping Motives； Capital Intensity； Labor Productivity；Firm Scale； State-owned Enterprises
美国对华反倾销、企业异质性与出口绩效
蒋为 孙浦阳[40]
《数量经济技术经济研究》2016年第7期
摘要：本文首先通过最近邻匹配法建立实验组和对照组样本，采用“倍差法”从直接与间接渠道两个角度，就反倾销对中国企业出口的影响进行实证分析；进一步，本文采用“双重倍差法”就反倾销对异质性企业出口影响的差异性进行分析。研究发现：在美国对华反倾销制裁实施后，中国企业不仅在“被反倾销”实施产品对美出口上出现显著下降，而且在对其他地区与产品上的出口也出现了显著的下降；与此同时，美国对华反倾销调查对企业的经营绩效与融资状况均产生了显著的负面影响，从而导致企业对其他市场的出口受到冲击。本文的研究还发现反倾销制裁对具有不同特征的企业出口影响是具有显著差异的。
关键词： 反倾销政策 企业出口 直接与间接效应 异质性
Anti-dumping，Firm Heterogeneous Response and Export
Performance
Abstract： This paper employs difference in difference method to investigate the direct and indirect impacts of anti-dumping policies on firms’ export behaviors in China. After that，this paper uses difference in difference in difference method to discuss whether firms’ characteristics will influence their responses. The results show that because of anti-dumping policies of U.S.，not only the firm-level exports of dumping products to U.S. drop significantly，but also the exports of other products and the exports to other countries. At the same time，the firms’ operation performance and financial indices are badly worsen，which may be the under lying mechanism of bad export behavior. On the other hand，this paper finds difference in firms’ responses to anti-dumping policies according to their characteristics.
Key Words： Anti-dumping Policy； Firm-level Export； Direct and Indirect Effect； Firm Heterogeneity
贸易壁垒与全球价值链嵌入——以中国遭遇反倾销为例
王孝松 吕越 赵春明[41]
《中国社会科学》2017年第1期
摘要：使用对中国总贸易流量的完整分解方法，区分总产品出口、最终产品出口和中间产品出口，定量识别贸易伙伴反倾销对中国参与全球价值链所产生的效应。可以发现：在考察期内，反倾销会使相关行业总出口的国内增加值率降低4.5%～28.7%；使相关行业最终产品出口的国内增加值率降低3.4%～17%；使相关行业中间产品出口的国内增加值率降低1. 2%～8.5%；反倾销措施还会使相关行业参与GVC地位指数下降8. 2%～28.6%，使相关行业的上游度指数增加3. 2%～13.7%。国外反倾销措施对中国各行业参与GVC及其地位的上升，产生了显著的负面影响。
关键词：全球价值链 反倾销 国外增加值率 技术升级
Trade Barriers and Embedment in the Global Value Chain：Taking Antidumping Actions against China as an Example
Abstract：We have carried out complete decomposition of China’s total trade flows，distinguishing among total merchandise exports，final product exports and intermediate product exports and quantitatively identifying the effect of trading partners’antidumping action on China’s participation in the global value chain.Our findings show that during the period under study，antidumping caused a 4.5%-28.7%decrease in the domestic value-added rate of the total exports of the relevant industries；a 3.4%-17%decrease in the domestic value-added rate of the final product exports of the relevant industries；and a 1. 2%-8.5%decrease in the domestic value-added rate of the intermediate product exports of the relevant industries.Further，antidumping measures also caused an 8. 2%-28.6%decrease in the status index of the relevant industries’participation in the global value chain，and a 3. 2%-13.7%increase in the upstream index of related industries.Foreign antidumping measures have had a significant negative effect on Chinese industries’participation in the global value chain and their ability to move up the value chain.
Key Words： Global Value Chain；Anti-dumping；Foreign Added Value Rate；Technical Upgrade
TPP对中国经济影响的政策模拟
李春顶 石晓军[42]
《中国工业经济》2016年第10期
摘要：跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）已经达成一致，一个旨在构建国际经贸新规则的高标准区域贸易协定即将付诸实施。然而，中国作为亚太地区重要的经济和贸易大国却被排除在TPP之外，随之的一个重要问题是TPP将如何影响中国经济。本文构建了一个包含29个国家的全球一般均衡模型，引入贸易成本并分解为关税壁垒和非关税壁垒，加入货币供给结构内生化贸易不平衡，并使用2013年全球数据校准模型模拟不同情景下的TPP效应。模拟分析的结果发现，当前12国TPP会对中国出口产生负面的冲击，但效应较小，未来当有更多国家加入TPP时，对中国出口的冲击反而会下降，2020年和2025年的影响效应下降，说明在远期对中国的影响更小，TPP形成新的国际经贸规则会增加对中国的冲击，TPP和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系协定（TTIP）的联合会增加对中国的冲击。整体上，TPP对中国的经济影响有限。
关键词：跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 一般均衡 数值模拟 影响效应
Policy Simulation of the TPP Effects on China Economy
Abstract：Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiation had already reached an agreement，a high standard regional trade agreement who aims to construct international economics and trade new rules will take effect soon.China is an important and big economic and trade country in Asia-Pacific region but is not in TPP，then the main topic will be how TPP influence China economy.This paper constructed a 29-country global general equilibrium model，introduced trade cost and disposed into tariff and non-tariff，and added a monetary supply structure to endogenously determine trade imbalance.We used 2013 as our benchmark data year to calibrate model and simulate the TPP influence under different scenarios.The simulation results find that present 12-country TPP will negatively influence China but the effects are weak.As more countries take part in TPP in the future，negative effects to China will further decrease. But if TPP forms a new international economics and trade rule，it will give China more negative shock. Meanwhile，the joint effects of TPP and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership（TTIP）will generate more negative influence to China. In general，TPP’s influences to China are limited，and cannot restrain China.
Key Word：Trans-Pacific Partnership；General Equilibrium；Numerical Simulation；Influence
影响区域经济一体化的经济地理与社会政治因素
曹吉云 佟家栋[43]
《南开经济研究》2017年第6期
摘要：本文通过研究发现，影响两经济体区域经济一体化的经济地理因素包括两经济体经济规模、经济规模相似程度、要素禀赋差异、两经济体之间的距离、与世界的平均距离和是否是内陆经济体；社会政治因素则包括两经济体是否有相同语言、贸易壁垒水平、经济自由度、政治稳定程度、民主程度及其差异、邻近经济体区域经济一体化伙伴数量及其差异。并且，通过对仅以经济地理因素和仅以社会政治因素作为解释变量分别进行回归的拟合值的比较，以及对经济地理因素和社会政治因素对两经济体区域经济一体化概率的局部效应的比较，结果表明社会政治因素对两经济体区域经济一体化的影响不容忽视，仅仅略小于经济地理因素。
关键词：区域经济一体化 经济地理因素 社会政治因素
Economic-geographical and Social-political Determinants of Regional Economic Integration
Abstract：This paper shows that the economic-geographical determinants of regional economic integration between two economies include economic size of a pair of economies，similarity of two economies’ economic size，difference in their relative factor endowments，distance between two economies，their remoteness from the rest of world，and interior，while the social-political determinants consist of a common language，trade protection level，economic freedom level，political stability，democracy，difference in their democracy，the development of regional economic integration in two economies’ neighborhoods，and difference in the development of regional economic integration in their neighborhoods.By comparing the Pseudo R2 of regression using only economic-geographical determinants with that of regression using only social-political determinants，and by comparing the partial effects of economic-geographical determinants with those of social-political determinants on the probability of a regional economic integration between two economies，it is found that the impact of social-political determinants on a regional economic integration between two economies is only slightly smaller than that of economic-geographical determinants.
Key Words：Regional Economic Integration；Economic-geographical Determinants；Social-political Determinants
以我为主，为我所用：中国应积极主动寻求加入TPP
余淼杰 张睿[44]
《国际经济评论》2017年第3期
摘要：美国主导的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）于2016年2月正式签署。而由于其设立的一系列高标准准入条件，自TPP谈判伊始，关于中国是否应该寻求加入TPP的争论便开始出现。本文认为，由于TPP谈判成员国占中国国际贸易很大比重，且TPP所设立的高标准准入条件与中国国内经济改革的大方向和目标一致，中国加入TPP，不仅可在贸易上获益并促进改革，还可以参与未来国际贸易投资规则的制定，增强在全球贸易舞台上的话语权。因此，中国应该积极主动寻求加入TPP。
关键词：TPP 劳动力成本 国际贸易投资规则 原产地规定
Make TPP Work for China：China Should Seek to Join TPP
Abstract：The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement（TPP），whose negotiation process has beendominated by the United States，was officially signed in February 2016. Due to a series ofstrict requirements to join the TPP，debates about whether China should seek to join it have emerged ever since the negotiation began. We argue that，on the one hand，China can enjoy favorable tariff treatments by joining the TPP because the current TPP members account fora large portion of China’s international trade；on the other hand，the strict requirements of the TPP are consistent with the orientation and objectives of China’s domestic reforms.Therefore，by joining the TPP，China can not only benefit from further trade liberalization and catalyze domestic reforms，but also participate in the shaping of international trade andinvestment rules and improve its influence.
Key Words：TPP；Labor Cost；International Trade and Investment Rules；Rules of Origin
跨国公司进入与中国本土企业成本加成——基于水平溢出与产业关联的实证研究
毛其淋 许家云[45]
《管理世界》 2016年第9期
摘要：跨国公司进入究竟会如何影响本土企业的成本加成定价能力？本文基于水平溢出与产业关联视角，利用2000—2007年中国工业企业微观数据进行研究发现：（1）跨国公司进入通过水平溢出渠道降低了本土企业成本加成率，而通过垂直溢出（包括前向关联和后向关联）显著提高了本土企业成本加成率，在总体上有益于提升本土企业的成本加成定价能力。（2）来自OECD国家的跨国公司进入显著提高了本土企业成本加成率，而来自港澳台地区的跨国公司进入对本土企业成本加成率的正向作用相对较弱；另外，出口导向型跨国公司进入对本土企业成本加成率的促进作用总体上大于市场寻求型跨国公司。（3）在制度越完善的地区，跨国公司进入对本土企业成本加成率的提升作用越大。（4）跨国公司进入在总体上显著降低了行业成本加成率分散度，有利于改善行业资源配置效率。进一步的影响机制检验表明：一方面，跨国公司进入促进了本土企业尤其是民营企业向外资企业成本加成率的追赶；另一方面，跨国公司进入通过促进低成本加成率的本土企业退出市场，进而也降低了行业成本加成率分散度。本文为客观评估跨国公司进入对东道国经济的影响提供了一个来自转型发展中国家的微观证据，同时对中国今后引资政策的调整具有重要的政策启示意义。
关键词：跨国公司进入 企业成本加成 水平溢出 垂直溢出 资源配置
Multinational Corporation Entry and Chinese Indigenous Firms’ Price-Cost Markups：Empirical Study Based on Horizontal Spillovers and Industrial Linkages
Abstract： How does multinational corporation（MNC） entry affect indigenous firms’ markups? From the perspectives of horizontal spillovers and industrial linkages，this paper uses Annual Survey of Industrial Enterprises（ASIE） to conduct empirical study，and finds that： （1）MNC entry reduces indigenous firms’ markups through horizontal spillovers，while raises indigenous firms’ markups through vertical spillovers（including both forward linkages and backward linkages）. MNC entry overall helps to raise indigenous firms’ markups.（2）The entry of MNC from OECD countries significantly raises indigenous firms’markups，while the entry of MNC from Hong Kong-Taiwan-Macau regions has a weaker positive effect . In addition，the positive impact of export-oriented MNC entry on indigenous firms’ markups is larger than that of domestic-market-oriented MNC entry. （3）The positive effect of MNC entry on indigenous firms’markups is greater in institution-developed regions. （4）MNC entry significantly reduces markup dispersion，which helps to improve the resource allocation efficiency.Further mechanism analysis shows that，on the one hand，MNC entry promotes indigenous firms，especially the private firms to catch up with the foreign firms’markups. On the other hand，MNC entry forces the low-markup firms to exit，which helps to reduce markup dispersion. This paper provides micro evidence from a transitional developing country to objectively assess the effect of MNC entry on host country’s economy，and it also has important implications for the adjustment of China’s FDI policy in the future.
Key Words： Multinational Corporation Entry； Price-Cost Markups；Horizontal Spillovers； Vertical Spillovers； Resource Allocation Efficiency
地方政府债务、金融发展与FDI——基于空间计量经济模型的实证分析
冼国明 冷艳丽[46]
《南开经济研究》 2016年第3期
摘要：本文运用空间数据分析方法考察了地方政府债务、金融发展和FDI 在我国各省域的空间分布格局。结果显示：我国省域地方政府债务、金融发展和FDI 均存在着显著的空间自相关性，三者在空间地理分布上呈现出明显的路径依赖特征，并在局部地区形成了不同的集聚区域。其中，地方政府债务和金融发展的高值集聚区多是我国FDI 的低值集聚区，而地方政府债务和金融发展的低值集聚区多是我国FDI 的高值集聚区。基于此，通过进一步构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型实证分析了地方政府债务和金融发展对我国FDI的影响，研究表明地方政府债务和金融发展均对我国FDI 具有显著的负向抑制效应，并且地方政府债务与金融发展之间还存在着交互作用，会加强彼此对FDI 的负向影响。同时还发现，不同地区的地方政府债务和金融发展对FDI 的影响程度存在显著差异：东部地区地方政府债务对FDI的负向抑制作用最大，西部地区金融发展对FDI的负向影响最大。
关键词：外商直接投资 地方政府债务 金融发展 空间计量
Local Government Debt，Financial Developmentand FDI：An Empirical Research Based on Spatial Econometrics
Abstract：By using the spatial analysis method of the geography，this paper investigates the spatial distribution pattern of local government debt，financial development and FDI in China’s province level，the results show that the spatial autocorrelation of them is significant. Local government debt，financial development and FDI show clear path dependence characteristics in geographic distribution and form different agglomeration regions in local area. The high value agglomeration regions of local government debt and financial development are FDI’ s low value agglomeration regions，and the low value agglomeration regions of local government debt and financial development are FDI’s high value agglomeration regions. Based on the analysis，this article studies the effects of local government debt and financial development on FDI by further building spatial lag model and spatial error model. Results show that local government debt and financial development both have significant negative effects on FDI，and the interaction between local government debt and financial development will strengthen the each other’s negative impact. It is also found that the impact of local government debt and financial development on FDI has significant differences in different regions.The negative influence of local government debt in eastern region and the negative inhibitory effect of financial development in western region is biggest.
Key Words：FDI；Local Government Debt；Financial Development；Spatial Econometrics
“污染天堂”假说与影响因素的中国省际研究
杨子晖 田磊[47]
《世界经济》 2017年第5期
摘要：本文结合前沿的面板协整分析方法，对1991—2011 年中国各省的外商投资（ FDI） 与环境污染的关系展开深入研究，以对“污染天堂”与“污染光环”假说进行检验，并在此基础上考察经济开放度、环境监管强度、资本密集度等因素对两者关系的影响。研究结果表明，污染天堂假说只在中国部分省份成立。利用动态滚动窗口面板分析等方法对两者关系潜在影响因素的分析表明，随着贸易开放程度的扩大，当地环境恶化的压力也将随之增加；以资本密集度不断提高为主要形式的产业结构升级，在一定程度上促进了污染排放技术的改进，从而降低了FDI 污染系数。此外，各地区环境监管力度的加强将对FDI 的污染排放行为产生抑制效果，而环保投资比例对污染系数不具有显著影响。
关键词：招商引资 污染天堂假说 面板协整分析
A Panel Co-integration Analysis of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Its Determinants in China
Abstract： To verify the validity of “Pollution Haven Hypothesis” and“Pollution Halo Hypothesis”，we analyze the relationship between FDI and the environmental pollution in 28 provinces of China by adopting the newly-developed panel co-integration technology. To provide significant evidences for the causes of “pollution haven”，we also explore whether or not the degree of openness，government regulation，ecological development and other factors have significant impacts on the relationship. Our paper shows that the “Pollution Haven Hypothesis”and “Pollution Halo Hypothesis” are supported for some provinces，respectively.Based on the panel analysis of rolling windows，our results show that ecological environments deteriorate further with the degree of openness to trade，and industrial upgrading improves the pollutant emission technique and decrease the pollution ratio. Additionally，the stringency of environmental regulation，rather than the environmental protection investment，display significant effect on the FDI’s emission reduction.
Key Words： Investment Attraction；Pollution Haven Hypothesis；Panel Cointegration Analysis
FDI 抑制了中国服务业发展吗?
张平[48]
《经济评论》 2016年第5期
摘要： 中国服务业占国民经济的比重一直明显低于国际可比水平，本文尝试从FDI 行业分布的角度研究这一问题。中国服务业部门的对外开放一直受到较多限制，由此导致制造业FDI 比重偏高，而服务业FDI 比重较低。我们使用2002—2014 年各省数据对FDI 与服务业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明，FDI 的增加抑制了服务业比重的提高，这主要是由于制造业FDI 对服务业发展的负面影响。其作用机制源自外资企业大量进行出口加工贸易，使得其本地产业关联作用较弱。本文的研究结论在一定程度上解释了我国服务业比重偏低的问题，并且为促进服务业发展提供了政策启示。未来应当通过加快服务业对外开放，打破行业垄断，创造竞争性的体制环境，来推动我国服务业进一步发展。
关键词： 行业分布 对外开放 服务业发展
Does FDI Restrain Development of China’s Service Sector?
Abstract： China’s services industry share in economy is lower than the international average level of the same income group. This article attempts to research on this issue from the perspective of FDI sector distribution. Opening of service sector has been more limited. As a result，high proportion of FDI concentrates in manufacturing industry，and FDI in service industry is lower.We use 2002—2014 provinces data to analysis relationship between FDI and development of the service industry empirically. The results showed growth of FDI suppressed the share of service industry in China economy. This is mainly due to the negative impact of FDI in manufacturing industry to the development of service industry. The Mechanism is a large number of foreign enterprises engage processing trade，which makes the local industry association weak. The conclusion of this paper explains the low proportion of service industry to a certain extent，and provides policy implication to promote the development of the service industry.In the future，we should get rid of the monopoly in service sector，and expand foreign opening up to promote the further development of service industry.
Key Words： Sector Distribution；Opening Up；Development of Service Industry
外资进入、外资并购与企业的研发创新——基于微观层面的实证研究
杜威剑 李梦洁[49]
《世界经济研究》 2016年第6期
摘要：文章采用倾向得分匹配变权估计模型与倍差法系统评估了外资进入对企业研发创新的微观效应。实证分析发现，外资进入会促使非研发企业进行产品创新并增加已研发企业的创新产出与研发投入，并且以并购方式进入的外资对企业研发创新的影响存在显著差异。文章还研究了外资进入的研发创新效应在不同知识产权保护程度的地区各有差异，好的知识产权保护制度会强化外资进入对企业研发创新的促进作用。研究结论对招商引资政策的调整具有重要的启示意义，近年来外资进入规模不断增加，而研究却发现外资进入强度存在适度区间，因此政府需要动态地将外资控制在适度区间，以更大程度地发挥外资进入对创新的激励作用。
关键词：外资进入 外资并购 研发创新 倾向得分 变权估计 倍差法
Foreign Investment，Foreign Acquisition and Innovation of Enterprises： Empirical Study based on Micro Level
Abstract： The paper uses the model of propensity score matching variable weights and the method of difference，in difference to estimate the microscopic effects of foreign investment on enterprises’ research and innovation. The results show that foreign investment will encourage the non R&D enterprises to carry out product innovation and increase the innovation input of R&D enterprise. The paper also studies the innovative effects in different areas of intellectual property protection and finds that better protection of intellectual property rights strengthens the innovative effects of foreign investment. The conclusions of the paper have important implications for adjustment of foreign investment policy. In recent years the scale of foreign investment is increasing，however，the paper has found that the scale of the foreign investment should be moderate. So the government needs to control the foreign investment in a moderate range，for stronger effects on R＆D and innovation.
Key Words：Foreign Investment； Foreign Acquisition；Innovation；Propensity Score
FDI、OFDI与国内技术进步
邵玉君[50]
《数量经济技术经济研究》 2017年第9期
摘要：研究目标：考察我国外商直接投资（FDI）和对外直接投资（OFDI）对国内技术进步的系统性影响。研究方法：将我国引进外资、对外直接投资与国内技术进步问题置于一个整体、系统性理论模型之中，使用2004—2015年欧盟、日本、美国和全球的面板数据进行计量分析。研究发现：实证研究表明2004—2015年欧美日对我国的FDI和我国对欧美日的OFDI阻碍了我国的技术进步，而同期在其他国家或地区的FDI和OFDI则促进了我国的技术进步，且这些国家越开放越有利于我国国内技术进步。研究创新：通过系统性和整体性的研究方法对FDI和OFDI对国内技术进步的系统性影响进行了分析。研究价值：为我国更好地“引进来”和“走出去”国际化战略路径选择提供了重要参考。
关键词：外商直接投资 对外直接投资 技术进步
FDI，OFDI，Domestic Technology Progress
Abstract： Research Objectives： Foreign Direct Investment and Outward Foreign Direct Investment influence on civil technology progress. Research methods： Foreign Direct Investment，Outward Foreign Direct Investment have been put in a holistic framework on this paper，use the panel data of European Union，Japan，USA and World from 2004-2015 for econometric analysis.Research findings： The empirical test shows that FDI from USA，European Union and Japan will decelerate technology progress in China while in the other countries will accelerate Total Factor Productivity increase consistently. Research Innovations： The paper applies the systematic and integral methods to analysis the effect of FDI and OFDI on civil tech civil technology progress. Research Value：Providing international strategy path decision of FDI and OFDI to our country.
Key Words：Foreign Direct Investment； Outward Foreign Direct Investment；Technology Progress
外资溢出效应与中国全球价值链参与
李磊 刘斌 王小霞[51]
《世界经济研究》 2017年第4期
摘要：文章构建了一个时间跨度为2000— 2013 年，包含中国企业的全球价值链参与和企业详细信息的微观数据集，研究了外商投资是否能够提高中国内资企业的全球价值链参与以及这种效应的实现途径。研究结论显示，外资的水平溢出正向影响了企业的全球价值链参与。外资水平溢出、前向溢出和后向溢出每增加1%，企业的全球价值链参与度分别增加0.0309%、0.0519%和0.0309%。该正向效应在考虑了滞后效应和使用对外资溢出的不同衡量方式后均保持稳健。进一步的研究显示，外资企业的技术溢出与港澳台企业的技术溢出对内资企业全球价值链参与的影响存在差异。外商投资对内资企业全球价值链参与的促进作用还受到外资的本地化生产程度、内资企业与外资企业的技术距离，以及利用外资政策的影响。
关键词：外商投资溢出 产业关联 全球价值链
Spillover Effect of Foreign Investment and Global Value Chain Participation of China
Abstract： This paper empirically analyzes whether FDI can promote domestic enterprises effectively embedding in the GVCs，and the way to achieve this effect.Based on a rich firm-level dataset of Chinese enterprises embedding in GVCs for the period 2000 -2013，our evidences suggest that horizontal spillover effect of FDI has a positive impact on enterprises embedding in GVCs. 1% increase in technology spillover of FDI，from the horizontal，forward or backward dimension，will respectively led to a 0.0309%，0.0519% or 0.0309% rise of the level of enterprises embedding in GVCs.Moreover，the positive effect remains robust after considering hysteresis effect and different ways to measure foreign overflow. In addition，our studies also find that this impact is different between firms in foreign countries and in Hong Kong，Macao and Taiwan. Further research shows，the promoting effect from foreign investment on domestic enterprises embedding in GVCs still subject to the degree of localization of foreign production，technology gap on the domestic and foreign enterprises，and the foreign investment policy.
Key Words： Foreign Investment Spillover； Industrial Association； Global Value Chain
外商直接投资进入是否增进了中国城市基础设施绩效
苑德宇 李德刚 杨志勇[52]
《世界经济》 2017年第8期
摘要：本文基于2008—2013 年中国645 个城市的数据，构建“反事实框架”并利用倾向得分匹配法，系统考察了外商直接投资（ FDI） 进入对城市基础设施绩效的影响。结果显示： FDI 进入对城市基础设施绩效产生了显著的“增进效应”，这不仅显著表现于“资金效应”方面，还显著表现在“技术效应”方面； 上述技术效应随年份的推移呈逐渐扩大态势，并且具有“累积式”滞后特征，即FDI 进入所带来的先进技术或管理经验需经历一定时期才能对城市基础设施绩效的提升起促进作用。本文结论可为在中国新型城镇化进程中充分、有效地利用外资提供政策启示。
关键词：外商直接投资 进入城市 基础设施绩效 倾向得分匹配法
Does the Entry of FDI Enhance the Performance of Urban Infrastructure in China?
Abstract： In this paper，based on the data of 645 cities （ county-level cities and municipal districts）from 2008 to 2013，we investigate the effects of FDI’s entry（ EFDI） on urban infrastructure performance via a counterfactual framework and propensity score matching method. The results show that EFDI significantly increased urban infrastructure performance through both“capital effect”and“technical effect”； The general effect of EFDI remained significantly positive during the whole data period and gradually increased； The technical effect of EFDI was cumulatively hysteretic，that is to say，the advanced technology and managerial experience within FDI needed a certain period of learning or adjustment before taking effect. Under the new pattern of economic development，the conclusions above can provide some policy implications for comprehensively and effectively utilizing foreign capital in China’s New Urbanization process.
Key Words： Entry of FDI；Urban Infrastructure Performance；Propensity Score Matching
外商直接投资究竟是“天使”还是“魔鬼”——基于居民主观幸福感的再审视
王修华 谷溪 王海成[53]
《国际贸易问题》 2016年第11期
摘要：本文基于2008 年和2010 年中国综合社会调查（CGSS） 数据，从主观幸福感角度分析了外商直接投资对中国居民的福利影响。实证结果表明：从整体来看，外商直接投资显著提高了中国居民的福利，并通过影响收入、收入差距和环境污染三条机制影响我国居民主观幸福感；在政府质量较高和政府质量较低的地区，外商直接投资通过加强正向渗透作用和替代效应促进居民主观幸福感的提升；而在政府质量中等的地区，外商直接投资对居民福利的影响不显著；此外，不同来源地的外商直接投资对居民主观幸福感的影响存在差异。
关键词：外商直接投资 主观幸福感 政府质量
Is Foreign Direct Investment an Angel or a Devil— from the Perspective of Subjective Well Being
Abstract： From the micro perspective，this paper analyzes the welfare effects of foreign direct investment from the perspective of subjective well-being and its mechanism of action. Based on the data from CGSS（2008） and CGSS（2010），the empirical analysis shows that foreign direct investment has a positive impact on the subjective well being in China，and mainly through the income，income gap and environmental pollution three channels to affect residents’subjective well being.Further research shows that this impact is also influenced by the local government’s quality. In areas with relatively high and low government quality，the positive effect of foreign direct investment is more significant by substitution effect and penetration effect enhancement. However，the positive effect is not significant when it comes to the middle level government quality areas. Moreover，the FDI from different district exerts different effect on residents’subjective well being.
Key Words： Foreign Direct Investment； Subjective Well Being； Government Quality
外商直接投资的减贫效应：基于流动人口的微观分析
葛顺奇 刘晨 罗伟[54]
《国际贸易问题》 2016年第1期
摘要：减少贫困不仅是我国全面建成小康社会的重要目标，也是世界各国发展的优先任务；外商投资可以直接增加国内的劳动力需求，同时通过水平和垂直溢出效应提升国内人力资本和工资水平等方式，促进劳动者收入增加、减缓国内贫困。因此，本文基于2007 年中国流动人口调查数据和工业企业数据全面探讨了外商直接投资在我国减贫进程中的作用。研究表明，外商直接投资在总体上提升了我国居民包括贫困人口的生活水平，有效地降低了贫困发生率。结果显示，外资进入程度提升1%，则流动人口贫困率可下降约0.3%～0.5%。进一步的研究显示，来自非避税地、内销型的外商投资有较强的减贫效应。
关键词：外商直接投资 贫困率 流动人口
The Poverty-Alleviating Effects of Foreign Direct Investment： a Microanalysis of Internal Migrants
Abstract： Building a middle-class society is not only a priority for China，but for all countries. FDI can increase demand for labor directly and，through spillover effects and vertical linkages，improve the quality of human capital and wage levels in the country. Based on 2007 data from the census of internal migrants in China and the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database，this paper examines the impact of FDI on the reduction of poverty among migrants. Results suggest that FDI has improved the living standards of residents as well as migrants and has significantly reduced the poverty headcount ratio. Specifically，the poverty headcount ratio is reduced by 0.3%-0.5% if FDI increases by 1%. In addition，FDI that had the most significant effects came from countries that were not tax havens and which sold their products in China.
Key Words： Foreign Direct Investment； Poverty Headcount Ratio； Migrants
外商投资企业是否有更高的退出风险
高凌云 屈小博 贾朋[55]
《世界经济》 2017年第7期
摘要：本文基于1998—2008 年中国工业企业数据，在严格界定企业退出的前提下，利用能控制多重生存期和不可观测异质性的离散时间生存分析方法，检验了中国以不同方式定义的外商投资企业是否存在“自由流动”特性。核心结论有： 中国外商投资企业的无条件和条件退出风险均低于内资企业； 这一所有权溢价主要源于“干中学”和合资、合作方的“相互学”。另外，企业和产业层面的特征也会对外商投资企业退出风险产生显著影响。上述结论从退出风险的角度为中国坚持扩大外资准入、放松外资股权比例限制等政策提供了经验支撑。
关键词：外资溢价 自由流动 生存分析
Do Foreign Firms Have Higher Exit Probability?
Abstract： By strictly defining the term“firm exit”，this paper，using Chinese Enterprise Database （ 1998—2008） and discrete survival analysis approach，examines various foreign firms in China under different definitions and aims to uncover whether there is footloose problem or not. Our core conclusions include that the unconditional exit probability of China’s foreign firms is lower than that of domestic ones，and so is the conditional probability after adding firm-level and industry-level covariates. Furthermore，the ownership premium，mainly due to learning effect，slows down the decline of survival probability of foreign enterprises. This paper provides，from the perspective of exit probability，empirical evidence for policies on expanding access to foreign investment and reducing or even abolishing foreign ownership restrictions.
Key Words： Ownership Premium；Footloose；Survival Analysis
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